Monday September 16, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

It is the eve of elections in Israel and we need to go over some ground rules.

Do not trust polls.

Elections in Israel - as in the United States, are not easy for pollsters to predict.

When polling results are as close as they now are, polls cannot be a good indicator. Yes, there are two larger parties and yes, there are several moderate size parties and yes, there are many smaller parties that are just on the cusp of getting Parlimentary seats. But does anyone needs polls for that information?

The real strength in Israel's elections is not with the party that wins the most seats. The real strength - and the power, sits with the party that joins the ruling coalition and holds out and gets what it wants.

The follow-up to the election is where the action is.

That is where we will, once again, witness the trading and the negotiating and the manipulation. And eventually, hopefully, we will see a government emerge.
If that doesn't happen - and I'm not sure it will, prepare for another election come January or February.

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