Exit Strategy for COVID-19
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday April 1, 2020
I've Been Thinking:
We should not yet begin to think that an end is in sight or to develop an exit strategy. Before that can happen, several other things must happen.
The growth of new cases needs to top out. When that happens, we will see it in the bell curve. The bell curve will show that in local studies, over a sustained period, fewer and fewer people have been infected.
The number of critical care patients needs to drop. Fewer and fewer people need to be on respirators. The key word here is “fewer” not “few” as in total numbers.
It is percentages, rather than numbers, that are the essential figure.
And it will also be determined by health status. Healthy with low risk communities will be the first to be able to ease up – not eliminate, merely ease up, on restrictions.
If we are not cautious and very careful, we can create a revolving door situation. That is not what we want. It will only delay, dangerously delay, our eventual return to normalcy – or at least to what will be our new normal.
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