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Exit Strategy for COVID-19
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday April 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

The crisis of COVID-19 continues.

We should not yet begin to think that an end is in sight or to develop an exit strategy. Before that can happen, several other things must happen.

The growth of new cases needs to top out. When that happens, we will see it in the bell curve. The bell curve will show that in local studies, over a sustained period, fewer and fewer people have been infected.

The number of critical care patients needs to drop. Fewer and fewer people need to be on respirators. The key word here is “fewer” not “few” as in total numbers.

It is percentages, rather than numbers, that are the essential figure.
When that happens, when hospitals and their ICU’s are not backed up, we can begin an exit strategy. That strategy will probably come stage by stage, step by step, location by location – from community to county to city to state to country.

And it will also be determined by health status. Healthy with low risk communities will be the first to be able to ease up – not eliminate, merely ease up, on restrictions.

Monitoring of numbers is essential throughout the process.

If we are not cautious and very careful, we can create a revolving door situation. That is not what we want. It will only delay, dangerously delay, our eventual return to normalcy – or at least to what will be our new normal.

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2 April 2020 02:07 PM in Thoughts

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