Monday January 24, 2005

Column:

Everything is interconnected. That is an essential component of the concept of randomness in theoretical physics. By no coincidence, it is also an essential component of the region known as the Middle East.

What appears to be random is not. And only when one understands the interconnectedness of ideas and concepts, the interplay between people and peoples and the interweaving of actions, can one begin to piece together the greater picture that is the Middle East.

What it is that motivates the players in the Middle East to action? Why?

Of course, sometimes these interconnections are fabricate...but that only better proves my point. The interconnectedness is such a significant dimension of the Middle East, that even the illusions of links are well believed inside and outside the region. That the Mossad and CIA were responsible for 9-11 is a classic example of the myth.

Look at what happened this week. The Israelis sent a message to the Americans asking them to please intercede on behalf of the Palestinians, to help the newly elected Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas. Again, I repeat, Israelis asking Americans to aid the Palestinians. Incredible? No, just interconnected - and self interested.

The idea the Israelis are floating is for the United States to exert pressure on Syria and on Iran to rein in the Middle East terrorists. Iran and Syria have a general desire to create instability in the Middle East region, specifically by attacking Israel. They readily sponsor the terrorist work of Hezbullah and Hamas and even Islamic Jihad. Why is Israel asking the US to get involved? So that Abbas has a chance of succeeding in his presidency.

It is the concept that is very important here. Iran and Syria sponsor terror organizations. The objective of those organizations is to destabilize the entire area. So destabilizing means terror, but it also means weakening the powers that be, including the now potentially powerful President Abbas.

Israel wants Abbas to succeed. It is an elementary equation. A successful Abbas means a more peaceful Israel. It also means that Abbas will, eventually, after initial help from "true friends", be strong and more likely capable of taking charge and controlling the terrorists from there on. The United States, too, sees that as in its own best interests.

If, however, the terrorists continue to be in control and to get their funding and urging from Syria and Iran then Abbas will be crippled and the situation will disintegrate. More terror. No peace. A totally destabilized region.

We have already seen what happens when the status quo settles in and becomes the norm in the Middle East - regular, routine, terror attacks against Israelis. And that is a terrible situation for all parties, not just Israel. It means the ousting of the new president. It means that Abbas, and whatever democratic values entered Palestinian society with his election, would fall. Abbas would not be able to tolerate the pressure placed on him internationally to control his people, i.e., the terrorists and be forced to step down, or, he would be ousted locally, either by the electorate or by assassination.

Now we get to the crux of the matter. How can the United States exert pressure on Syria and Iran, these two rouge nations?

Isn't the US, after all, in open conflict with Syria and Iran about nuclear issues and about sponsoring terrorism in Iraq? Yes, but. But there is still significant and important interchange that takes place between almost all nations. It's called back channel diplomacy. It goes on all the time. And some of the time, it works.

The United States has options. The best option is - the quiet approach. The US can play the subtle, diplomatic angle. They would activate mid-level channels and try to influence Syria and Iran behind closed doors. This is one of the most effective methods of international pressure. It is also one of the only effective and important by-products of the United Nations. Through the UN, US diplomats (and all diplomats) can easily send messages even to archenemies, they can have secret conversations on issues about which they are absolutely diametrically opposed, ideas can be conveyed and even debated indirectly and sometimes, even directly.

One way or another, Iran and Syria will get the message. The question remains whether they will agree to go along with the "suggestion". The question facing Syria and Iraq is this: Is the region better off in their eyes if the Palestinians get on their feet? The United States, the Palestinians and the Israelis are all in agreement on this one. Iran and Syria might think otherwise.

We'll see. Whatever they choose to do, we'll know. Remember, it's all interconnected.