Monday February 21, 2005

Column:

What's the mood? What's the mood of the people?

For years, that was the question. It was always a rather annoying question, but it certainly was popular, especially at lectures. If asked that question today, I would give the same answer I always gave.

The mood is mixed. Today, Israelis fall into one of two camps. Camp one is optimistic. Camp two is fearful. There is no middle ground.

Those in the optimistic camp are convinced that Prime Minister Sharon is leading Israelis down the path of peace. They are optimistic that his motives, movements and decisions will ensure a safer future, a safer Israel. They are optimistic that soon the rest of the country will be convinced that withdrawal is the right way to go, the best way to go, the only real way to allow all Israelis to get on with their lives. Their optimism is pure and simple.

Those in the fear camp deal with a range of emotions that are anything but simple and trust nobody's motives, certainly not the motives of elected officials, to be pure.

Fear is a complicated factor in Israeli life. Seeds of fear relate directly to the past. The Palestinians are talking the talk and walking the walk, but are Abu Mazen and his Palestinian followers for real? Can a zebra really change its stripes? Or are they just setting up Israel by "pulling an Arafat" - saying what other needs to hear and doing whatever they want.

If the Palestinians are "pulling an Arafat", then Sharon is leading Israel not down the path of peace but down a dreamy-eyed and foolish path of self-delusion and self-destruction. Then Israeli lives will have been lost in vain. Then Israel will have to, once again, invade Gaza to protect Israeli citizens. Then Israel will have given up much and gotten, in return, nothing.

Not only does the fearful camp worry about the Palestinian issue, but also about the Israeli issue. It is no exaggeration at all to say that internal Israeli tensions are on the rise. Those who fear, fear a Jew versus Jew scenario. They fear that Israelis in favor of a withdrawal from Gaza will fight those who are not.

Fear is founded, but not fear of a civil war, that is an exaggeration. The real fear should be the fear of extremists.

There are people in Israel today determined to derail the Gaza plan. Their plan centers around an attack on a big, important target - on someone like a government official, a member of Knesset, on the prime minister. There is an organized campaign maligning the Sharon government. The prime minister and his government, now a national unity government, have been called traitors, collaborators and even Nazis. Since the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin these expressions send up a red flag in Israeli society. Threats have been made against the life of Ariel Sharon. Those responsible for the security of the prime minister are on serious alert. The threats are real.

The verbal campaign being waged during demonstrations around the country against the Sharon government and the Gaza plan is the preamble for the greater attack. Exaggerated claims are being made suggesting that the government more closely resembles a dictatorship than an elected democracy. Hiding behind the democratic right of free speech, extremists are setting the stage for the big attack.

But who are the true extremists, the people ready to go to any lengths to stop the withdrawal from Gaza, the people ready to fight, even to kill, their neighbors? They are not the people blocking traffic at intersections and at the entrance to Jerusalem. They are a very dedicated and motivated group of Israelis who exist beyond the protests, who are waiting in the wings before making their entrance. What are their names?

Two groups of people are monitoring, very carefully monitoring, what goes on at intersection demonstrations and organized protests. Those who want to prevent the big attack and those who want to perpetrate the big attack.

Israel's Internal Security Services, known as the Shin Bet or the Shabak, is equivalent to the FBI. They need to be able to anticipate what might happen in the future. In this case, they need to know who the real players, who today's true extremist leaders, are. They need to monitor their actions, to get into their heads and to prevent them from acting before it is too late.

The second group, the true extremist leaders, the people my Bubbe would call "no goodniks" are monitoring the demonstrations as closely as the Shin Bet. True extremists are not controlling the demonstrating, but they are participating. They are thankful for the demonstrations for providing them cover. The more people in favor of demonstrations, the broader the support for their plan. Extremists are monitoring and measuring the tone at demonstrations in order to determine the exact right time to act.

Extremists need to know if their big attack will gain the support of other activists or if their action will marginalize the masses. That is why they monitor demonstrations. They are taking the pulse of the nation. They are judging the mood of the people. They are also watching the religious leadership very carefully. They will try to anticipate if the rabbis will condemn, condone or simply acquiesce to an "action." They are reading the religious press and scouting the synagogues and religious schools to hear what people are saying about actions and activism.

Activists are doing exactly what the Shin Bet is doing. Both sides know the other is out there. Both sides assume that there are moles and double agents. Both sides are experienced, well organized, well trained and well stocked with weapons.

Who will get to whom first?