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APPEARANCES CAN BE DECEIVING
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday March 2, 2005

Column:

It appears that serious steps are being taken towards liberalizing the Middle East. It appears that Egypt might be in the process of democratization. If that happens, it would even appear that another great dictatorship is about to fall.

But beware, appearances can be deceiving.
It's actions that count. And the United States has begun to take diplomatic action against Egypt.

President George W. Bush and his secretary of state, Condi Rice, have cranked up their pressure on Egypt. In response, Egypt has publicly agreed to amend its constitution and allow for possible opposition in upcoming elections.

The US administration has taken almost every opportunity to hit hard at "The Great Nation of Egypt". They have hammered away at Egypt's government and system of governance in almost every foreign policy speech, at home and abroad, even in the president's State of the Union Address. And then they ratcheted up the pressure.

In response to what the United States has determined to be democratic backsliding, citing the arrest in Egypt of a leader of the political opposition, the administration made public that the secretary of state has dropped Egypt from the itinerary of her next Mid East trip.
Exerting this type of pressure on Egypt was brilliant. It is masterful diplomacy.

Putting Egypt on the itinerary and then dropping her because of non-democratic activity sends out a solid message to the entire region.

Again, however, we must beware.

The United States does not hold a monopoly on brilliance in diplomatic maneuvering. Egypt, too, knows how to play the diplomatic game. A longtime student of Egypt calls the Egyptians brilliant in bowing to American pressure right now. By showing that indeed, they are interested in liberalization. They inherit even more US monetary aid, and by bowing to pressure now, they lessen the pressure on themselves in the future.

As long as there is movement toward change the US will feel as if actual change is happening. The United States will feel that they are making a difference, and the United States likes to feel that are making a difference.

And as long as the United States feels good, Egypt can continue to move along exactly as they always have. Egypt can begin to build a facade.

Egypt will put in place a series of referendums. In order to create the best democracy, they will need to study democracy. They will need to determine what the Egyptian people really need. They will need to determine what the Egyptian people really want. They will need to determine how to give the Egyptian people what they really need and what they really want. They will need to determine if it is really all in the best interests of the Egyptian people. And that takes time, a lot of time.

They will ask the people to voice their opinion on whether women should vote, on whether homosexuals should vote, on whether religious minorities should vote. And after each referendum more US aid will be on the way. More aid, the appearance of liberalization, but actually, little headway and no noticeable change.

Egypt currently receives 2 billion dollars a year in US aid. They are second only to Israel in the amount of money that they receive from the United States. All that aid is at risk if the US does not feel that Egypt is pulling her weight.

But the truth is that Egyptian leadership does not want to change, they do not want to liberalize.

Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has ruled very comfortably in his position since 1981, for the last 24 years. Mubarak has been in absolute control. What occupies him now is the transition of power to his son, a project he has been devoting himself to for the last two years.

So, yes, embarrassing Egypt into announcing change was a brilliant move. Even more brilliant will be transforming that announcement into true action.

4 June 2017 12:14 PM in Columns


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