Sunday May 1, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

An Arabic language website, one that claims to be a voice of Al Qaeda, has announced that Osama bin Laden is dead.

The announcement created a flurry of responses in the Arab press.
Most of the comments said no way, no way could bin Laden be dead.
They said that if it were true, there would have been an outpouring of sympathy and very public expressions of mourning acclaiming his great accomplishments.

Osam bin Laden is probably is not dead.

What bin Laden probably is doing, however, is examining the power of a campaign of disinformation. And that’s important.
Bin Laden needs to know how will it help or hurt his cause if he is presumed dead.
Bin Laden needs to know if his messages get to the right places and people and if it is possible to confuse the masses while keeping his trusted inner circle in the know.

If this truly was a disinformation campaign, then he learned a lot.
He learned that this time there was virtually no real reaction.
He learned that next time he will have to be much more convincing.

And certainly, there will be a next time.