Monday June 27, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Change in Syria is never good.
What on the surface appear to be three isolated incidents of change, except that they are all happening in one short time period, have raised my antenna.

Change # 1: Syria has adopted a softer tone over the past week or two concerning their border with Iraq. Syria says they are sealing the border.

Change # 2: Syria continues to operate in Lebanon and that includes assassinations.

Change # 3: Syria seems to have accepted a harsh reality, they will not be able to easily negotiate a settlement and regain control of the Golan Heights from Israel.

What is happening in Syria?
A coup? Maybe.
Liberalization? Doubtful.
A shakeup? Especially in the upper levels of advisors, confidants and leadership, especially in the military? Probably.

Let's keep watch.