Wednesday August 31, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's ruling Likud party is being put to the test.
Will they emerge smart and savvy, or will they sink fast and foolishly?

The Likud party, it seems, wants to replace the party leader, Ariel Sharon, with Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu. Party apparatchiks are still livid, furious with Sharon for proceeding with the Gaza disengagement despite their protests.

Here's the catch:
Sharon may not be popular within his party, but he is overwhelmingly popular among the general voters.
Netanyahu is the flavor of the month for Likud members, but not at all popular among the general population and could not win a national election.

Is Likud mature enough to put the party before intra-party politics, or will they commit political suicide to get revenge for Gaza?
If Likud ousts Sharon the voter alternative is not Netanyahu, the alternative is the Labor party and that would probably mean giving Shimon Peres the premiership.
Right now, Labor is floundering with only 17 Knesset seats. The best thing that could happen for Labor (not Likud) is the ousting of Sharon.

This is not rocket science, it is simple straightforward analysis.
My suggestion to Likud members: GET OVER IT, and by the way, the settler community doesn't vote for you anyway.