Saturday October 29, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday, Hosni Mubarak, the President of Egypt, made a surprise and quick trip to Damascus to meet with Assad of Syria.
In the Arab world Egypt is one of the diplomatic big boys.
Egypt handles damage control for the rest of the Arab world.

The trip comes one week after the release of the United Nations report that places responsibility for the assassination of Rafik Hariri squarely at the feet of senior Syrian leaders.
Egypt came to explain to Syria that the findings of this report are serious and that the world is taking the investigation very seriously.
Egypt is saying: Do something to accept responsibility. Find a sacrificial lamb, preferably a Lebanese sacrificial lamb. Lay low and keep a low profile.

Odds are that Syria will not be swayed by Mubarak's assessment.
Assad is neither a diplomat nor a commanding leader.
His only real objective is survival.
Syria's actions following the UN report will put Assad's survival instincts to the test.