Tuesday October 11, 2005

I'm Predicting:

Palestinian Authority Parliament elections scheduled for January will probably be postponed - again.
They were originally scheduled to happen in July.
The last PA Parliament elections were 10 years ago.

Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas were supposed to meet today. They did not. No Surprise there.
Jordan's King Abdullah leaked that they would meet and actually called Sharon and told him the meeting was set up.
The United States wants them to meet.
Egypt wants them to meet.
Sweden wants them to meet.
Iceland probably wants them to meet, too.
Abbas never wanted them to meet. Sharon could care less.

Abbas cannot meet. He has nothing to offer, he only has demands. If Abbas leaves the meeting with nothing he is a failure. Sharon is not going to give much more until there is Palestinian quiet and that requires time and energy and organized attacks against Hamas. Not likely.

Abbas cannot bring himself to crack down other than some token gestures. He hopes that the momentum will naturally shift in his direction. Palestinian police are out but not in force and even incapable of protecting themselves.
Sharon would like to let things fester.