Sunday December 25, 2005

I'm Predicting:

Rumors abound about Abu Mazen, the head of the Palestinian Authority.
The most significant rumor has it that he will be resigning from politics.

Abu Mazen has hit an all time low.
His popularity and power have reached new depths.
During Arafat's era Abu Mazen would threaten to resign in order to get Arafat to move on an issue. But now he is in charge and he is paralyzed. Abu Mazen cannot move anything. He makes policies, makes agreements and nothing is fulfilled. There is no trickle down. No one listens to him.

Internal Palestinian sources describe intense frustration. They describe how Abu Mazen avoids difficult issues.
Right now, for example, Abu Mazen is avoiding the issue of missiles being fired at Israel from Gaza. He says, let Israel deal it. He says it is not his problem.
Israeli military intelligence says that Abu Mazen is barely hanging on and that he is on the verge of leaving politics all together.

What happens if Abu Mazen does leave his position and politics?
It would cause terrible disorder and the void would be filled by Hamas.
A Hamas run Palestine would be a Palestine with no mixed messages.
That is for sure.