Saturday December 17, 2005

I'm Predicting:

Palestinian Authority leadership is going to want to delay the Parliamentary elections that are scheduled for January 25, 2006.

The PA has suffered some serious popularity setbacks.
Over the last weeks local elections have resulted in overwhelming support for Hamas. That should not have surprised anyone. For example: in Nablus, the largest West Bank city, Hamas received 73% of the municipal election.

This is a huge blow to the success of Fatah, the military arm of the PA, and to the PA itself.

Internal struggles are also compromising the strength of Fatah and the PA.
The Fatah Young Guard, led by Marwan Barghouti, is running as an independent party. This young guard will split the Fatah vote and will help Hamas gain an even larger voice in the Legislature.

The PA will try to push off the elections so that they can buy more votes by stepping up their social services and gain in popularity.
The PA will try to fight Hamas at its own game.

Hamas and the Fatah Young Guard have already organized rallies against a delay in elections. Some Fatah Young Guard members, weapons in hand, took over a Fatah headquarters to protest any delay.

The situation is tense. Tensions will continue to escalate.