Friday January 6, 2006

I'm Predicting:

One of the beauties of a stable democracy is a non-threatening process of succession. Neither the society nor the foundations upon which it is built are at risk of collapse.

The fact that most observers and many pundits do not know who the players are and are therefore making bizarre pronouncements concerning possible successors to Ariel Sharon is to be blamed on the fact that they cannot see past their own superficial perceptions and analysis.
Democracies always have a plethora of good people. Not as good, perhaps, but good.

Sharon will be missed.
But there will be no power vacuum.

The March elections guarantee that. A look at the polls underscores my point.
Last week, after Sharon's minor stroke, Kadima would garner 42 seats.
In today's polls, under Olmert, they would get 40 seats.
Under Shimon Peres they would get 42 seats.
Under Tzipi Livni, they would get 38.
Not bad, especially because Likud drops down one seat to 13 and Labor drops a seat putting it at 18.

The realistic centrist movement that Sharon created will not evaporate.
It struck a strong cord in Israeli society.
Kadima will, as its name implies, continues to move forward --- just slower.