Saturday January 28, 2006

I'm Predicting:

Tensions will rise in the Palestinian Authority.
Tensions will rise to the point where a near civil war is a distinct possibility.

The tables will be turned.
Just as Hamas refused to disarm when Fatah ruled, the lawless, armed gangs of Fatah followers will refuse to disarm when Hamas rules.
First there will be skirmishes.
Next there will be firefight.
After that comes civil war.

Had Abbas disarmed Hamas they would never have won the elections. Hamas only had a few thousand men with arms in Gaza and just over a thousand in the West Bank.
Abbas could have done it easily, but he did not want violence and feared the prospect of civil war on his watch.
But it will happen anyway.
And Abbas will go down in history as the most irrelevant piece in the entire Palestinian puzzle.