Saturday March 25, 2006

I'm Predicting:

The polls for the Israeli elections on Tuesday will be off - really off.
Don't count on exit polls being correct either.
It's not that polls lie, it's the people who lie.

Here's why:

There will be a very low (only about 60%) voter turnout.

A large portion of people who responded to polls will not go to the voting booth even if they say they will.

Kadima, the leading party, is brand new.
People cannot "go home" to their original party.

All party numbers have been seesawing these past few weeks.
Up one day and down the next translates into no perceptible movement in any direction.

20% of Israelis are still undecided.

They will not swing the winner's place, but they will affect the number of parliamentary seats.

Without polls we know one thing for sure - Kadima will win.
But how big a win? 33seats? 43?