Friday April 21, 2006

I'm Predicting:

Egypt is a country to be reckoned with in the Middle East.
Often, Egypt is an accurate barometer calibrating the mood of the region.

Right now, however Egypt is embarking on two futile attempts to reconcile Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.
Right now Egypt's efforts are doomed to fail.

Egypt is trying to get Israel to meet with Abbas.
But Abbas is irrelevant and meeting with him means nothing.
So Israel has nothing to gain - they will not meet.

Egypt is trying to get Hamas to accept the 2002 Arab League Peace Plan that recognizes Israel within the pre-1967 borders.
But Hamas will not accept Israel under any circumstances.
So it does not matter who composed the plan - Arab league or European Union.

Right now, Egypt's agenda is to exert enormous amounts of pressure on Hamas to get them to change.
Over time, the Egyptian plan might even work or maybe even force Hamas out of power.
But not now.