Friday April 7, 2006

I'm Predicting:

Tension is high in the ranks of Palestinian leadership.
Who will control the security forces - police, civil defense and preventive security?
That is the big question.

Mahmoud Abbas, president and leader of the PLO, just appointed his loyal ally Rashid Abu Shbak, as head of security forces.
Ismail Haniyeh, the new Hamas prime minister, says he is going appoint Hamas people to head the security forces.

Abbas is isolated. He has very little power but is issuing presidential laws and acting on them. He wants to create a counter balance to the Hamas-led parliament which falls under the jurisdiction of Haniyeh.

Does Abbas have a chance at succeeding? He has a small and viable chance. Members of the security forces hold allegiance to Abbas and Fatah and would have difficulty following Hamas orders. If Hamas attempts to use force in order to take over, all three security forces may strike back.

Expect violence and gun fights on Palestinian streets as this is worked out.
It is the stronger man, not the better man, who will emerge triumphant.