Monday April 17, 2006

Column:

Focus on the short term.

Opt for a one year plan.

If I were advising Israel's new prime minister, Ehud Olmert, I would sit across from him in a comfortable easy chair, light up two good cigars, brandy snifters at our side, and say take it slow.

Slow is what Israel needs right now. Slow is what will keep Olmert in position. Slow is what will keep Kadima alive.

Politically-inclined Israelis are not used to doing things slowly. Modern-day Israelis are not a very patient people. They want action. But right now, action is not what Israelis need.

Right now, Israelis need well-thought-out plans. Discussions. National consensus. They need to make decisions that will affect the long term and they need to talk these decisions out.

Only one government in Israel's history has lasted a full four-year term, that was the government of Yitzhak Shamir. Olmert is not about to re-write history. But, if he plays it smart and takes it slow there is a chance that this Kadima government can be the catalyst for unification that the country so desperately needs. If he rushes and lets the party win go to his head, Olmert and Kadima will be doomed to repeat the pattern that so often characterizes Israeli politics. If he rushes, he will succeed at only one thing - perpetuating divisiveness in a country prone to impatience, debate and political squabbling.

The most important part of Kadima's victory and the ascent of Olmert to the prime ministry is the move by Israelis away from the extremes, the move to the center. And that move signifies the maturation of Israeli politics. Israeli voters have come of age. They are making their own political decisions. They are no longer following in the footsteps of the past which was the way Israel's political system operated for so many years, in so many previous elections. The passion of the extreme, right of left, which pervaded Israeli political discourse since the inception of the State has been toned down. With this election, Israeli's have put an end of ideology.

The center is a much less vocal, much less animated, much less energized place to be than the extreme. The center, as Kadima proved in this election, is a very popular place to be - at least with the voting public. If Olmert wants to hold on to this middle he must make it popular with potential Knesset Coalition partners. He must make his government an attractive place to be. The way to succeed is for Olmert to shoot for the short-term coalition.

Ehud, I say, set up a government that is focused on a one year term. Yes, a one year term. If you're polite, you'll call this idea radical. If you're not so polite, you are probably calling it crazy. I'm calling it rational, exciting and an invitation for success.

Make it public. Announce that you are interested in only one year. Explain that what the country needs now is a real national consensus. Make your government a welcoming forum for those parties who would otherwise gain media exposure by rankling you. Make your government the place where would-be opposition parties can join, without compromising their own party principles. Make your government a government that other parties can sell to their constituencies precisely because it is only a short-term commitment. Create a government that pledges to think through, discuss and debate life-defining issues. That is the way to make your mark on Israeli history. That is the way to avoid the fate of Ehud Barak and Bibi Netanyahu. That is the way to insure that, one year from now you-by then a proven leader in your own right - you will be re-elected.

If, during the coming year, Olmert can orchestrate a national discussion on the issue of security a national consensus will clearly emerge. If Olmert stays the course of the center, Kadima will maintain its overwhelming majority. If Olmert knows what the people of Israel want, especially when it comes to the issues of further redeployment and the relocation of Israelis, then the one-year term idea will have paid off handsomely - for Olmert, for Kadima, for the people of Israel.

Any party wanting to be part of the debate should be welcome. Most parties, with the obvious exception of the Arab parties and the far-right still-extremist parties, will want to join. At the end of the one year, each party and each party leader - not only Olmert and Kadima - will be able to take stock of their status and the perspectives of their constituencies. At that point parties will once again split-off or join the next term government. At that point they will be making decisions informed by national consensus.

If, however, Olmert runs to action and redeploys quickly, thinking that his plurality equals majority backing, he will be making a fatal mistake. He will be ousted in the first year. The framing of the debate will not be about the future of Israel but about the elimination of Olmert. One of the lessons taught by Olmert's mentor, Ariel Sharon, is that national discussion is more important than political jargon and political leadership.

Right now, national debate is enormously important for Israel. Israelis are willing and, more importantly, able to make the sacrifices for a safer and a better Israel. All they need is the proper plan, the plan that will convince them that Israel and the lives of their families, now and tomorrow, will truly be safer. To deny Israelis a national debate is to deny Israelis a safer Israel

Ehud, Mr. Prime Minister, I have some great brandy. I trust your taste in cigars.