Monday April 10, 2006

Column:

Israel has decided to torque up the pressure on Hamas.

Israel is suspending all interaction with the Palestinian Authority. Israel will boycott any country or individual entering into discussion with Hamas.

Israel has had enough of nothing.

Israel is not abandoning the Palestinian people, Israel is abandoning the Palestinian government. There will be one exception to the "no contact" decree. That exception is humanitarian aid. Humanitarian aid will be delivered directly by Israel to those agencies that distribute the aid to the people. As far as Israeli interaction with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is concerned, Israel is saying that all options will be kept open.

Israel is taking a risk.

Both in the short and long term, Israel wants to get rid of Hamas, to oust Hamas from political power. Israel will never completely eliminate the terrorist force of Hamas, Israel just wants Hamas out of the government. By enforcing a boycott against the Palestinian Authority the hope is that the Palestinian people will be fed up, rise up and oust the government themselves. But then what? Abbas is not a shining ray of light in the darkness. And it is not obvious to me that this tactic will work.

Israel knows one thing for sure, and with that I agree. Israel decided on this policy because they have come to the understanding that the Palestinian Authority is not a multi-headed animal but rather a single-headed beast. Hamas is the beast and Hamas is in control, not Abbas.

No other Western country understands the Palestinian Authority as well as Israel. No other country shares this new perspective with Israel, at least, not yet. Just as Israel is trying to influence the people of the Palestinian Authority to move for change, Israel is trying to influence world powers to change attitudes and behaviors towards the Hamas-led government.

The logic goes this way:
Abbas may have the right intensions but he holds no real power and commands no respect from the Palestinian people.

Hamas has control of the Legislature and that puts them in control of nearly every aspect of Palestinian political life.

Despite Abbas's best attempts to retain power he is virtually powerless to effect change or even to alter public opinion. His attempt to cede power from the Legislature is hapless and hopeless. His position has become almost exclusively ceremonial.

The Palestinian Authority is not the same as it was under Arafat. When Yasser Arafat deigned to accept the title of President of the Palestinian Authority he maintained all the power and panache that he had before assuming the title. It was Arafat's way. The power of his personality eliminated any possible threat to his position and leadership. The reason the United States insisted that there be a Palestinian prime minister was because the US thought it was the way to create a system of power sharing between the president and the prime minister. The US thought it would act like a check and balance system. The US was making an attempt to liberalize a dictatorship

Things don't always work out as planned in the Palestinian Authority. Israel is paying the price. The Palestinian people are paying the price.

Empowering the legislature and the prime minister widens the responsibilities of government sharing. Wresting control away from the legislature and the prime minister and passing it back totally to the presidency is a serious mistake. Trying to return power to the office of the president simply because Israel does not like the parliament and the prime minister is a huge problem. Politics is not ping pong.

The reality goes this way:
The Hamas government must be either reformed or removed. Israel knows that, so does the United States and most of Europe.

The Hamas government being what it is means there is very little chance of reform. The only option is removal.

Removing Hamas from power is a delicate and dangerous move. If Hamas feels too threatened, they will likely take total control of the entire government - eliminating the little democracy that actually exists.

That would be a coup for Hamas and a very ugly end game for the Western world. That would be serving up Hamas' greatest wish on a silver platter.

That's why boycotting is better. Even if I am doubtful that it will work.