Tuesday May 9, 2006

Column:

Forget about the Security Council. Forget sanctions. Forget the threat of military invasion. Think China.

The only way to get through to Iran is through China. The only country in the world with the power to influence Iran is China. The only country capable of halting Iran's nuclear development program is China. China, China, China. The saying goes that one in six people in the world might, one day, visit China, the other five live there.

Why is China the key to Iran? Because China is dependent on Iran's oil. Because China, the largest purchaser of oil in the world, buys from Iran. Because China doles out about $100 billion - yearly - to Iran for oil. Because when China speaks, or even mumbles a suggestion, Iran will and must listen. Because China is a major inside player in Iran's world.

And because China is the only country in the world that can be counted on not to do the bidding of the United States, and to Iran, that is worth more than all the oil in the world. China and only China will not respond to United States pressure, promises or persuasion. China is the only country in the world strong and stable and haughty enough to be totally independent of the United States. And Iran can count on that.

And that upsets the United States. Which gets a rise out of China. Which pleases, by extension, Iran.

So there's money. And there's influence. And there's politics.

China is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. One of the powers of permanent membership is the ability to cast vetoes. And China will cast a veto for anything not in the best interests of the Chinese. So don't count on the Security Council to curb Iran's nuclear activities.

And cutting off China's Iranian oil pipe line is not in China's best interests, so United Nations sponsored sanctions on Iran will not happen.
As for military invasion, it is not a viable option either. The chances of an invasion are very slim, the chances of a successful invasion, even slimmer.

Iran has no alternative options if China were to decide to stop buying oil. China, on the other hand, has many options. There are other places to procure oil in the world. But there is no other client in this world like China - not even any combination of clients can match China's needs and buying capacity. So Iran will do China’s bidding, even putting a halt to their advancing nuclear program if, indeed, China asks them to halt, cutback, cease and desist.

Well, you are asking, what about Russia? Russia, I tell you, is not China. Certainly, as another member of the Security Council the Russians have veto power as equal as the veto of the Chinese. Yes, Russia is also heavily invested in Iran, only to the tune of $30 billion a year in energy development, but that is still a lot of money. And Russia is actually building two of Iran's nuclear power plants at a cost of $1 billion each. But Russia is up for sale, Iran knows that, everyone knows that. It is the Achilles' heel of Russia.

Everything the Russians do has a price tag. Every deal, every project, everything. Russia cannot be trusted. Even in matters concerning Iran, in the end Russia would capitulate to the United States - for the right fee, of course, but there is always a number. In the end, Russia would be a US ally and pressure Iran. Russia might not even realize it yet, but Iran does. Iran knows that fact to be true. You see, Iran understands Russia even better than the United States understands Russia.

So it is all up to China. China, China, China.

China cannot possibly see any benefit from a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. They know that if Iran, a Shiite country, gets nuclear weapons then Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the big boys of the Sunni world, will need nuclear weapons too. China also knows that, bottom line, an arms race in the Mid East will only increase the cost of oil and will destabilize the region.

More than that, China does not trust the religious fundamentalist leadership of Iran. In China's eyes Iran is not predictable. They know that if Iranian uranium enrichment develops past the point of energy development, the 5% level it is at now, it will move to research levels and, inevitably, to arms levels.

China knows the potential dangers. But China will not support either United States or United Nations sponsored sanctions against Iran. So how do we get China to tell Iran to slow down? Not only does China do only what is good for China, China does it all on China's own timetable. So how do we get China to sign on? How does one pressure a giant to move?

We, the West, cannot. Only other Muslim countries can ask China to influence Iran. And African countries. China has recently begun to direct marketing strategies at African countries. And that's a good sign because while the West has little influence with Muslim countries, there is some influence with African nations.

Will it happen? Will Iran's nuclear program be slowed? It will. When will it happen? When China decides to make it happen. When China feels the need to step in and say stop. Not a minute before.