Wednesday June 7, 2006

I'm Predicting:

Last week I predicted that the Palestinian Referendum would be postponed and voila, Prime Minister Abbas has pushed the referendum off 'til the week-end.

The Referendum is officially named the National Reconciliation Document but because it was composed by five Palestinians imprisoned in Israel's Hadari prison, the Palestinian press has dubbed it the Prisoner's Document.
The most senior of the prisoners is Marwan Bargouti, secretary general of Fatah. Another contributor is Abdel Halek Natshe, a leader of Hamas.

The document has 18 points.
It recognizes Israel within the '67 borders and is unbending on that issue.
It rejects attacks on Israelis within those borders and welcomes attacks on settlers over the border.
The document is overwhelming supported by the Palestinian masses.
The document will win a significant victory when it goes to referendum.

For the Palestinians it will be the beginning of the end of Hamas in power.
For the Israelis it will mean a shift in pressure to offer serious concessions.
Good news for the Palestinians, bad news for the Israelis - essentially because the language in the document concerning the '67 borders is so very, very strong.