Saturday July 29, 2006

I've Been Thinking:

Why has the public stance of liberal Arab leaders toward the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah changed?
Because the conflict has gone on too long.

Liberal Arab leaders have capitulated to the masses.
The popular feeling on the all-important Arab "street" has forced liberal Arab leadership to change their stance on Hezbollah.

The Ahmadinejads of the Arab world always knew that the Muslim masses would come out in support of Nassrallah and Hezbollah.
They know that conspiracy theories pervade Islam society.
Ahmadinejad has been fueling those theories.
The most powerful theory is that the ultimate goal of Israel and the United States is to grab Muslim lands and oppress Arabs.

Saudi, Egyptian and Jordanian leaders fought their "street" on this matter thinking it would be a 1-2-quick conflict.
As it becomes clear that the conflict will continue these leaders made the choice to tow the line of Arab unity in order to preserve internal harmony among their people.

Arabic newspapers have begun the switch.
They are no longer debating the wisdom of Hezbollah's rupturing of a fragile status quo. They have returned to their classic canards: of it's the fault of the US and Israel the US and Israel are blind and heartless oppression of Muslims.

The reality: these leaders still question Hezbollah because Hezbollah is Shiite and represents Iran while Saudi Arabia and Jordan and Egypt are Sunnis and reject Iran's beliefs as fundamentally heretical.
They still see Hezbollah as politically dangerous.
This shift - even if cosmetic and coerced, yields tremendous power to Shiites as they search for new adherents and support in the Muslim world.

Bottom line: This is a huge success for Iran and Shiites.
Looking at the bigger picture: Iran could not be happier.