Sunday August 27, 2006

I'm Predicting:

Let's go over the Kidnap Count:
3 Israeli soldiers and 2 Fox News journalists kidnapped by terrorists.
3 are being held in Gaza and 2 are being held in Lebanon.
3 are held by Palestinians and 2 by Hezbollah.

Several things should be made very clear:
1- the best way to get the captives is to discover where they are and launch a raid to free them
2- the controlling power - the people who pull the strings, are often far away and always more powerful than the local captors
3- the flood gates could be opening to far more kidnappings

Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas have reason to diffuse the situation. Actually, they think that the taking of the captives works on their behalf.
That is a serious miscalculation.
As things get worse on "the street" in Gaza and in Southern Lebanon, local Arabs will blame Hezbollah and Hamas and point to the kidnappings as the cause of their worsening situations.
Hezbollah and Hamas will lose their advantage on "the street."

The pendulum has begun to swing.
There is unrest in Gaza, there will soon be unrest in Southern Lebanon.
The hostages need to be retrieved before Hezbollah and Hamas lose control.