Friday August 25, 2006

I'm Predicting:

The United Nations Security Council will not apply serious sanctions on Iran.
No way.

Maybe they will censure Iran.
Maybe they will limit Iran's sports and cultural exchanges.
Maybe, possibly, perhaps they will apply travel restrictions on their diplomats. Maybe, but even that is highly unlikely.

The Security Council is split.
One part views this Iranian counter proposal as a sign that Iran is open to diplomacy. The other part wants sanctions now. The split is between the East and West, between China and the United States.

Russia is under great pressure from the US to vote for sanctions, but it is doubtful that Russia will vote against Iran.
China will never vote for sanctions against Iran. China is the largest consumer of energy in the world. China is Iran's biggest client.

The clincher: Both Russia and China have automatic Security Council vetoes.
Think of another solution, sanctions in the Security Council will not succeed.