Friday August 18, 2006

I'm Predicting:

The Lebanese Army will soon be taking up positions in Southern Lebanon.
Supposedly, officially, they will be there to keep Hezbollah from re-arming and to take away any weapons that Hezbollah might already have.

Here is the problem:
The Lebanese army has already gotten their orders and those orders have nothing to do with policing Hezbollah.
Lebanese leaders have instructed the army to defend their nation, i.e., they are to fight Israel.
Nasrallah has publicly instructed the army not to take any weapons from anyone and not to even touch any caches of weapons they might find.
And the Lebanese cabinet has said: "There will be no confrontation with our brothers."

What does that mean:
It means that in the near future, inevitably, there will be a series of clashes.
It means that there will be clashes between UN forces, the Lebanese army, Hezbollah and even Israel.
It means that the United Nations will be forced to take their role seriously.
It means that the Lebanese army will be stuck in the middle - they are weak and, once again, Hezbollah will be exploiting them.

Welcome back to square one.