Thursday, November 23, 2006

I'm Predicting:

The assassination in Lebanon of Pierre Gemayel was predictable.
Unfortunately, it portends for a grim future.
It resonates with symbolism.

The facts:
Gemayel was a Christian
Gemayel opposed Syrian involvement in Lebanon
Hezbollah supports Syrian involvement in Lebanon

The symbolism:
Gemayel was the perfect target.
He was young, and he was a minister in a weak government.
He was the son of Amin, a former president of Lebanon.
He was named after his grandfather, Bashir, a former Lebanese president who was assassinated the day he took office.
He was assassinated the day before Lebanon's Independence Day.

The future:
Tensions between pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian camps will now boil over.
Lebanon is always on the brink of civil war.
Incidents like this one bring that brink just a little bit closer.