Tuesday November 14, 2006

Column:

Okay. So now that we know for sure that control of both the House and the Senate has returned to the Democrats the panic is beginning to set in.

Everyone wants to know: what effect will this mid-term election change have on Middle East policy? what changes can we expect vis a vis the United States and Israel? how will this impact on the fight against terror?

The short answer is very little, very little, very little.

I'll explain. Iraq aside, U.S. policy in the Middle East is not a pendulum that swings from side to side. There are subtle changes and slow movement but nothing that would constitute seismic shifts in loyalty, policy or procedural guidelines. True enough, Congress sets an important tone on foreign affairs because Congress pays the bills and provides the aid. But the president, lame duck or not, still has two years left on his commitments. The president knows that this election was not won or lost for his party on the issue of Middle East policy.

I do not see any changes in Congress on that level. Congress, including the new faces in Congress, is not interested in changing their Middle East orientation. Even if they wanted to, these newly-elected mid-term rookies could never make it happen.

Next. Support for Israel is rock hard on the Hill and on Pennsylvania Avenue.

Period end. I do not see any change in tone. I do not envision any change in aid - moral or financial.

Moving right along. The fight against terror will not slow down. Neither will the push to have Iran slow down on their nuclear plans and programs. They are too important. Red, blue, chartreuse or fuchsia, everyone agrees that these are two very important wars we are waging and we cannot afford to lose even one battle.

Arabic press coverage and the media releases that the Muslim world is sending out would have you think that the entire United States was just turned upside down. We know better.

The Iranians have said that now there might be a chance to actually move ahead with discussions about their nuclear energy program. They said that there is less of a chance of conflict with the U.S. after the mid-term elections. We know better.

Syria is jumping with glee. They think that now there will be a smarter i.e. less involved U.S. policy in the Middle East. We know better.

Everyone in the Arab world is hoping for a new policy. But it won't happen. Policy will continue to move along in much the same way it moved when the Republicans were in power. New faces, new representation, but much of the same policy.

That includes a very complicated relationship with Saudi Arabia. It means a very mixed relationship with Egypt. It means prodding Jordan. And it means whispering into the ears of moderate countries like Bahrain and Qatar and hoping that they will get off the fence and really recognize Israel.

On Iran there will be no change. Iran is a safe issue and all American support a tough attitude toward Iran's nuclear policy.

Iraq is a short term issue and not a long term issue. But still, there will be no real change. I do not see even this new Congress advocating for a total pull out of Iraq. I see them making a big deal out of a small and prophylactic removal of troops. The United States cannot just pack up and leave and every responsible politician knows that. The impact of an abrupt U.S. departure from Iraq would result in a living nightmare with a ripple effect all through the Middle East.

The House and Senate have changed. But we will feel that change only on domestic issues.