Saturday June 2, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Sometimes making peace is more dangerous than the status quo.
Sometimes making peace can leave a country weaker rather than more secure.

Israel is contemplating resuming peace talks with Syria and has begun testing the waters.
Why - after all these years, why now?
Reason # 1: a potential miscalculation by Syria
Reason # 2: improved weapons and continued arms development by Syria

In the aftermath of last summer's war and the release of Israel's internal analysis of the war, Syria sees Israel was weak.
Extending the olive branch at this junction will, in the eyes of Syria, confirm the weakened status of Israel.

According to an Islamic tradition that dates all the way back to the time of the Koran a strong Muslim leader has the power to dictate all treaties with a weaker party and may even abrogate those treaties should he so desire.

If Syria - or any other Arab nation, senses that Israel comes to the peace table out of a position of weakness and fear Israel will be placed in a position configured specifically to put the country more at risk than to keep it safe.

To think that Israel is weak might be a miscalculation by Syria, but it is still the attitude and approach they will adopt at a peace table.