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Annapolis and Peace
By Micah Halpern

Monday October 8, 2007

I'm Predicting:

People are starting to talk about the Annapolis conference.

The Israeli and Palestinian teams have begun to hammer out ideas.
Israel's Deputy Prime Minister, Haim Ramon, was quoted as saying: "Whoever thinks that in the Annapolis Conference the parties will be discussing the structure of institutions in the Palestinian Authority is fooling himself."

Several changes will emerge as a result of the Annapolis Conference:
Israel will be forced to capitulate on some big issues - like relinquishing control of Arab neighborhoods surrounding Jerusalem.
Arab representatives will gang up and push hard on what they consider human rights violations by Israel.
The US and Israel together will try to push the Palestinians to create real institutions of government, justice, education and police and they will insist that the Palestinians crack down on terror and vitriol.

The US will be wearing three hats and it will be a difficult juggling act.
# 1: host
# 2: mediator
# 3: defender of Israel
Defending Israel will be the most untenable position for the US and so Israel will be on its own declaring its limits and lines in the sand, most of which will have been determined in advance of the Conference.

The limited objective of this Conference which is to create and then continue dialogue is both superficial and ridiculous. The Conference winner will be the group that pushes hardest and since neither the United States nor Israel will push, the outcome is obvious and foregone.

Expect milestones, but no miracles.

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4 June 2017 12:14 PM in Thoughts

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