Thursday December 27, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

Not to have anticipated this assassination is a major failing in US foreign policy.
I do not believe that Musharraf had Bhutto killed.

My Prediction:
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is cataclysmic for Pakistan.
The assassination is catastrophic for American interests in Pakistan.
The assassination will result in a spiraling down of almost every quantifiable intelligence variable in Pakistan.
But in the end law and order will again be restored - by the army.

My Analysis:
Pakistan is an ally of the United States.
Musharraf has promised proper elections.
BUT Musharraf is a THUG.
Before all of this Pakistan, was on the verge of democratic reforms.
Now it's all a crap shoot.

It was at the insistence of the US that Bhutto returned to Pakistan.
One of the results of the return was a series of immediate assassination attempts on her life and the imposing of martial law.
Bhutto even dispatched a letter to Musharraf naming 4 "high ups" she suspected were plotting her demise.

Bhutto herself was not above reproach, BUT now
Bhutto represented the opposition
Bhutto represented change
Bhutto represented the past
Bhutto symbolized everything that is dangerous and volatile in Pakistan.

The US is in a very bad diplomatic position.
The US supports Musharraf BUT the US also supports democracy.
There is a clear clash.
Democracy cannot emerge without law and order.

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