Wednesday December 5, 2007

I've Been Thinking:

The US National Intelligence Estimate gives a whole new understanding to the word "intelligence."

Their newest report concludes that all 16 US intelligence agencies concur that the Iranians stopped their atomic weapons program in 2003.
To give some perspective, this is the same group whose endorsement was used to invade Iraq.

The biggest issue with the report is not whether Iran stopped their plan in 2003. The biggest issue is what Iran hopes to do now with their current program.
Iran is certainly receiving Uranium from Russia, just a few days ago the Russia foreign minister admitted that he was shipping uranium to Iran under the IAEA.

The fact that the US Estimate cannot conclude that Iran is not moving toward nuclear weapons does not mean that Iran is not indeed moving forward.
"Conclude" is the operative word.
In the words of the report:
"We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely while it weighs its options, or whether it will or already has set specific deadlines or criteria that will prompt it to restart the program."

In other words, in plain English, assume the worst.

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