Thursday May 22, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
It is important that Syria and Israel are meeting to discuss peace.
It is important even though, ultimately, the discussions will not lead to peace.
Let's look at this for what it really is and what it is not:
# 1: There is so much baggage brought to the discussion table that there is no way either side can meet the other side's minimum requirements for a peace deal.
# 2: It is not really a peace negotiation, the parties are not speaking to one another, they are using a third party intermediary, Turkey.
# 3: Peace with Israel is not in the interest of Syria.
# 4: Syria will not and cannot disengage from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.
# 5: Syria will not and cannot normalize relations with Israel.
So if these aren't peace discussions, what are they:
# 1: It is not war. War is something Syria does not want and cannot afford. A war would result in the ousting of President Bashar Assad from his post and could jeopardize the entire regime.
# 2: It is Syria's way to lay claim to the Golan Heights. For that, Syria is willing to enter into third party negotiations with Israel.
# 3: It is Israel's way of telling Syria that in order to receive the Golan Heights they will have to swear not to attack Israel. Israel needs real assurances from Syria and real movement away from Iran. That will not come.
So where does this all lead?
To a situation in which Israel is no closer to peace with Syria, but Syria and Assad are farther away from an Israeli attack.
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4 June 2017 12:14 PM in
Thoughts
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