Monday July 21, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Amos Yadlin, head of Israel Military Intelligence is reporting that Hezbollah is planning to attack Israel.
Hezbollah is always planning to attack Israel and just because there is a plan it does not necessarily follow that there will be an attack.
So what's his point?

Yadlin is pointing out that both circumstances and the size of Hezbollah's arsenal have changed. He is pointing out that according to intelligence reports Hezbollah has built up and improved their weapons supply so that it is now 2-3 times larger than it was two summers ago, before the war with Israel.

Yadlin also has information that Hezbollah has set up sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons to prevent Israel from flying helicopter and air recon or attacks over Lebanon. His information has been confirmed by Kuwaiti news reports.

Yadlin has put together the following calculus:
Now that the prisoner exchange is over and Samir Kuntar has been returned, Hezbollah can increase tensions along the northern border of Israel without fear of torpedoing or jeopardizing any long range Hezbollah plans.

That's his point - and that point is significant.

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