August 12, 2008

I'm Predicting:

Relations between Russia and Georgia have been strained ever since the Soviet Union was taken apart. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union South Ossetia has been in Georgia, but South Ossetia has always wanted independence.
They have their own flag, language and culture.

In 1992 the Russians were appointed peacekeeping observers of Ossetia. They were there to maintain the status quo and to protect Ossetia from dominance by Georgia.
In 2006 Ossetia had a national referendum and declared independence.

The entire world ignored their call for independence - including Georgia.
When Russia saw that Georgia was intensifying its hold on Ossetia they took it as a threat to their Russian observer status.
The great bear pounced - ostensibly to protect Ossetia but really out of self interest.
Russia crossed the border - literally and figuratively - and attacked Georgia proper.
Now we have big guns, death and destruction.

Russia will not back down until the Russian objective has been achieved.
The Russian objective is to tone down Georgia vis a vis Ossetia.
The situation will never return to status quo.
These wounds never heal.

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