Saturday, August 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The United States blew it when it came to intelligence on Russia and Georgia.
That mistake will set back US diplomacy for a significant amount of time.
The US should have seen this conflict coming.

The signs were there:
# 1: over the past few years the Russians have granted citizenship to so many Ossetians and Abkhazians that the majority of the people of the region are now Russian citizens

# 2: the Russians made it obvious to everyone just how threatened they were over the possibility of Georgia (and the Ukraine) joining NATO

# 3: Russia was seriously distraught that not one but two pipelines, one for gas and one for oil, bypass Russia and go through Georgia

# 4: the Western-style approach of Georgian President Saakashvilli was a direct slap in the face to Russia.

Not to see these things means that people were asleep at the wheel.
I always gave the Intel community the benefit of the doubt in the Middle East because they really do not understand Islam - but here it is another story.

If Georgia falls Western intell will effectively be shut out of the Caucasus'.
If Georgia falls major oil and gas wealth from the Caspian Sea will fall into the control of Russia.
The handwriting on the wall was there, the United States just didn't bother to read it.

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