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Monday September 1, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
New papers and documents have just come to light that are damning to US foreign policy under the leadership of then National Security Advisor, the venerable Henry Kissinger.
According to these papers Kissinger sent CIA representative Robert Ames into meetings with Fatah murderers. Specifically, into meetings with Ali Hassan Salameh, head of Black September.
During those meetings Salameh made it very clear to Ames that he was responsible for the murder of US diplomats in Khartoum.
A decade later, in 1983, Ames himself was murdered in a terror attack.
Kissinger wanted Ames to dialogue with Arafat's people in order to get information about potential attacks against Americans. One piece of information these discussions did reveal was Arafat's intention to topple Jordan's King Hussein.
The most important and very damning piece of information in the newly released papers is a telegram dated July 5, 1973 sent to National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger from CIA Chief Richard Helms revealing that the Jordanians had uncovered plans that Syria planned on attacking Israel and coordinating the attack with Egypt and Iraq.
Now we know that Henry Kissinger told the CIA to continue contacts with Arafat's PLO people before the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
He had them talking even after Arafat ordered the kidnapping and murder of the American ambassador and his deputy in Sudan.
And now Kissinger is selling his services to China.
World, beware.
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Monday September 1, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
National political conventions are still big, very big.
38.4 million people watched Barack Obama's acceptance speech - that number is mind boggling.
More Americans tuned in to watch the final night of the Democratic National Convention than the 34.2 million who watched the opening of the Beijing Olympics.
More Americans tuned in to watch the final night of the Democratic National Convention than watched the finals of American Idol.
Only four Super Bowl games in history have hit the 40 million mark.
Four years ago only about half as many people, 20 million, tuned in to watch John Kerry give his acceptance speech.
Ten commercial stations carried the speech, so did PBS but they did not pay Neilson to gather their numbers which could mean that 40 million Americans actually tuned in.
There will be no fair way to compare the numbers watching the Republican National Convention with those who watched the Democratic Convention, nature has other plans.
But one thing is certain, even in the age of You Tube, Americans are still interested enough to tune in for live coverage of national politics.
Surprised me.
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Sunday August 31, 2008
I'm Predicting:
For months I have been predicting a missile deal between Russia and Iran.
A deal that would seriously inhibit a defensive strike against Iranian nuclear posts by Israel, by the United States or by any other Western power.
My info says that the delivery of the S-300 missiles will take place in late September.
It will take the Iranians six months to a year to assemble and train on the new weapon system.
The light bulb has finally gone off for the Americans.
The US has finally wised up to what the Russians and Iranians are doing.
Until now the United States has repeatedly said that they have no intelligence supporting such a deal and do not expect it to happen.
Iranians say they have a deal with Russia.
Russians have no comment.
And the Russians have a plan to put the screws to the US for their involvement in Russia's world.
It is payback for supporting Georgia and Ukraine and Poland, for encroaching on the Russian sphere of influence.
Russia is saying to the US you mess with us we mess with you.
Navigating through this new mine field will be a gargantuan test for the new US president.
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Sunday August 31, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Americans aren't the only people caught up in convention fever.
The election of a new United States president is of interest around the world.
The Russian leadership team of Putin and Medvedev is plotting new challenges and trials for the new US president.
Russia is telling the US to butt out of their sphere of influence.
Russia is telling the US to get out of Eastern Europe.
Russia is telling the US to pay attention to their threats - or they, Russia, will upset the apple cart with Iran.
Iran and Russia have a very close relationship.
Iran counts on Russia for support in so many ways including in the UN Security Council.
We are looking at a potential redo of the Kruschev-Kennedy story, a conflict that nearly brought the two strongest powers in the world to war.
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Saturday August 30, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
When it came to the Russian invasion of Georgia, most international analysts and commentators got it wrong.
Most all of them have focused on Russia's desire for an imminent return of the Cold War.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Russia cannot and does not want a return of the Cold War.
Russia wants to maintain their role as world leader.
It is other countries that yearn for the return of the Cold War.
It is other countries that are vying for a place of world dominance and the opportunity to challenge US hegemony.
Syria's total failure to see the reality of Russia's behavior was the greatest example of the fallout from this erroneous analysis.
The advisors to Syria's president Bashar Assad just assumed that the commentators were correct and that the Russians were off to remake their empire. That explains why Assad proposed all of those silly offers to Moscow.
Moscow does not need or want a base in Syria.
Moscow does not want to reestablish a major Middle East port in Tartus, Syria or anywhere.
Moscow wants respect.
Moscow wants that respect from the groups and the regions they deem to be peons, inferiors, the folk who up until a few years ago quaked at the very mention of Moscow.
That's what Russia wants.
What Russia wants is a far cry from what Russia has.
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Saturday August 30, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
In some ways selecting Sara Palin is a case of John McCain out Obama-ing Barack Obama.
The Republican vice presidential nominee is even younger, cuter and less experienced than Barack Obama.
The timing of the announcement was obvious and effective.
Labor Day week-end is as dead a news period as are Thanksgiving week-end and Christmas.
If all the Republicans wanted to accomplish was to steal the post convention thunder from the Democrats - it was a good choice.
But we all know that is not the ultimate goal of the Republican party.
And that is why the greater wisdom of this decision evades me.
She looks good and she sounds good.
And in the world of US politics, an attractive candidate is easy to vote for.
Sarah Palin will draw votes for the Republican presidential candidate, but for all the wrong reasons.
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Friday August 29, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The dust has settled and we are able to gauge the true result of Russia's invasion into Georgia.
In general, the world has condemned the invasion.
Russia is now beginning to feel the impact of its own actions - an overreaction and an exaggerated aggression in Georgia.
Most commentators have focused on Russia's desire to return to the era of the Cold War as a way of explaining the behavior of the aggressive Russians.
They are so wrong.
Russia is dependent on the world for its economy.
Russia needs the world's investments.
Over the past few weeks $12 billion worth of investment has been pulled out of Russia and that smarts.
The Russian Stock Exchange (RTS) has plummeted 32% and there is very little thought that it will bounce back and little hope that these losses will be regained in the near future.
Foreign investors are wary of investing in Russia.
The private economic pain that Russia is suffering from their invasion far outstrips any powerless diplomatic condemnations than any other country can heap on them.
Russia is now, literally, out in the cold - and it is of their own doing.
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Friday August 29, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Democratic National Convention in Denver was an enormous success for the Democratic Party.
It was an extravaganza.
Moving the event to the outdoor stadium was brilliant.
That move alone accomplished everything the Democrats wanted.
The organizers wanted to show openness, excitement, creativity.
The organizers wanted to create a cross between the good old fashioned political conventions of yesteryear and the spirit of a modern day major league sports event with the panache of a Hollywood bash.
And then they threw in a bit of the Greek temple look for good measure - just a bit over the top, but it worked.
The question of the moment is this:
Will anyone outside the stadium feel the energy?
Did the spectacle transcend the tube?
The hardest part about these conventions is the translation.
How do you carry over the enthusiasm of the delegates and the emotional wallop of the entertainers to the undecided voters of America watching from their homes?
Now we will see if the Democratic Convention was as successful with the voters as it was for the planners.
Now we wait for the polls, now we watch for that famous bump in the polls.
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Thursday August 28, 2008
Column:
A recent poll shows that 63 percent of Americans favor a military strike against Iran should diplomacy fail.
Sixty three percent, that's a whopping big number. It's an important number. It's a number that speaks not of an America that is fed up, tired or weary. It speaks of a spirited and vibrant America. And it's a number that shows that Americans are not gun shy, that Americans have not become weakened by the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Americans do not like injustice, Americans do not like evil and Americans are not afraid of bullies. And for Americans, Iran is all of those.
But there's a problem with the results of this poll. The problem is that the people of America are not the government of America. Americans are not afraid, but the government of America is afraid, or at least, wary. The results of this survey come at a very important time, they come only days after the conclusion of the conflict between Russia and Georgia, a conflict during which the United States of America chose to stand on the sidelines rather than stand up for freedom and democracy.
Interestingly, this poll was commissioned by the Israel Project, an unabashedly pro Israel advocacy program in Washington DC - and proud of it.
To give this study credibility, and to guarantee objectivity, the Israel Project went to both Democratic and Republican pollsters and jointly they produced the study. On the Republican side the poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. On the Democratic side it was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. They also took the poll to Germany and Great Britain.
85 percent of Democrats and 97 percent of Republicans see Iran as a serious threat to the United States. That is about as close as one can get to a bi-partisan agreement on anything, let alone a call to war. These conclusions are enormously important for the presidential candidates. They are also important for those countries around the world who hoping to continue to receive infusions of support for their burgeoning democracies from the United States.
Right now, right when the results of this poll are being released countries like Israel and Georgia are trying to integrate the lessons learned during the conflict between Russia and Georgia. They are trying to understand the how could they and the why did they not of the American response. Now they have an answer, the American people will support them, even if the American government does not. They know it because 55 percent of the Americans polled said that they viewed positively a strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities.
They know it because they know that 57 percent of Americans actually understand Iran better than most American politicians do. 57 percent of those Americans polled responded that they believe that the reason the Iranians want to attain nuclear power and nuclear weapons is to maximize their own, personal, regional authority and world power.
Americans attribute an actual motive to Iran's nuclear pursuits. And they are not afraid to admit it.
Take heed, that is the American way.
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Wednesday August 27, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of State Condi Rice finished her second day in Jerusalem.
Her most significant meeting was with Minister of Transportation Shaul Mofaz.
They did not talk about the state of mass transit.
Mofaz is a former chief of staff, a former defense minister and now a candidate for leader of the Kadima party.
Rice and Mofaz spoke about Iran and about imposing new sanctions upon Iran. Mofaz stated his concerns clearly.
Because of America's stance during the Georgia - Russian conflict he is concerned that Russia may not support an American proposal in the Security Council against Iran.
If that happens it would be disastrous.
It would be giving carte blanche to the Iranians to move ahead unchecked.
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Wednesday August 27, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
We saw a glimpse of him as he walked into the convention hall.
But the name Jimmy Carter is no where to be found on the roster of Democratic Convention speakers or presenters.
He may have written several best selling books, but don't expect to see too much of this former president.
Jimmy Carter will be kept far away from the limelight for several good reasons.
Carter is perceived by Americans to be out of sync with the mainstream.
Carter has changed his tune now, but he has been seriously critical of Obama.
Carter symbolizes failure.
Carter symbolizes past losses for the Democratic party, not hope for the future and dreams of victory.
He may be a former president but right now, Jimmy Carter is persona non grata.
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Tuesday August 26, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday the US Secretary of State arrived in Jerusalem.
This officially puts the total number of times she has made a trip to the Region --- at countless.
Rice's mission is to urge on Israelis and Palestinians towards a real agreement.
To her chagrin, expectations are pretty low.
There is so much going on in Israel right now, not the least of which is a lame duck prime minister, that an agreement is not top of the totem pole.
The secretary of state understands. As she put it: "but it is always a complicated time out here."
The Israelis are just being polite.
There is no possibility of a US brokered agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
The Israelis are also being prudent.
Not wanting to waste an important opportunity they drilled home their message about Iran. Defense minister Ehud Barak made it very clear that Israel will not accept a nuclear Iran.
Keep the pressure on Iran.
That will be Israel's continued refrain throughout this visit.
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Tuesday August 26, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The big news will be yesterday's kick-off of the Democratic Convention and the Michelle Obama speech.
Neither was stellar and that's a shame.
What makes it even more of a shame is that the big news should be the comments made yesterday by the husband of Michelle Obama.
Barack Obama said that part of his Iran strategy "as president will be to tighten the screws on Iran diplomatically." And: "To get sanctions in place."
Obama continued to say that the US must act before "Israel feels that its back is up against the wall."
These hugely significant comments will be overshadowed by the superficial party in Denver.
Obama came away from his trip to Israel thinking that Israel is preparing to bomb Iran.
He is correct, the operative word being preparing..
Israel is making plans and those plans will be in place and ready when and if Iran reaches their point of no return.
But at this stage in his career Obama should be able to distinguish between developing defense scenarios and contingences and actual policy and planning.
I have not yet seen him develop that skill.
Israel is developing and thinking and training for the worst scenario but that does not mean that Israel is trigger happy.
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Monday August 25, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
In Iran all elections are determined by the Supreme Leader.
In Iran the Ayatollah Khamenei determines who will lead.
There was no ambiguity in Iran yesterday about how the Ayatollah views Ahmadinejad. The Supreme Leader made a very public pronouncement. He said that Ahmadinejad was doing a wonderful job of leading Iran and advised him to continue leading as if there were four more years ahead - not as if he was leaving power at the end of this four year term.
This was such a ringing endorsement by the Supreme Leader that the people hoping to challenge Ahmadinejad were sent into a state of shock.
The forces organizing an alternative candidate were certain that the tone from the Leader would be more tepid allowing them to present a serious economic counter to Ahmadinejad much as they had done during the Iranian parliamentary elections.
No such luck.
Ahmadinejad will be around for the long run.
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Monday August 25, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Obama has named a VP and the Democrats are going in Convention mode.
Expect to see a bump in the polls.
The polls will give Obama a boost.
The hope is that the boost will start a trend.
Why did Obama choose Biden?
Biden was not chosen because he can reach the working class or because ha has experience or because he knows foreign affairs.
Biden is a classic old school political campaigner.
Biden takes the message and repeats it and repeats it and repeats it.
Biden has accurately been called him an attack dog.
Biden will attack Republicans on relevant and on irrelevant issues.
Biden is good at calling in favors.
Expect that along the way the vice presidential candidate will make some serious gaffs opening himself and Obama and the campaign to criticism.
It is not in his control, it is just who Joe Biden is.
The question is:
Will Biden's attacks on McCain outweigh his terrible flubs?
I would say the answer is a clear no.
Why? Because Biden is so obviously establishment Washington.
The bumps Biden puts in the road to the White House will be more significant than the bump his name creates in the polls.
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Sunday August 24, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Will the United States be there for us in the event of a crisis?
That is the big question. It is the question that Israeli strategists are asking in lieu of the Russian invasion into Georgia and the subsequent response by the United States and other Western governments.
Israel is not alone, other US allies are asking the same question.
The issue goes to the stability of small countries that are US allies.
If these countries are as powerless as Georgia was, then the concept of Western alliances and friendships are all called into question.
After studying the US response in Georgia and analyzing the thinking behind the National Intelligence Estimate that suggests that Iran is not a significant threat Israel has been able to draw significant conclusions:
The United States really is powerless when it comes to helping and defending her interests internationally. The United States can have only one of two responses: either invade the enemy country or supply the allied country.
Expect Israel to maximize the supply side of their relationship with the United States.
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Sunday August 24, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
And Joe Biden it is.
Biden is a safe choice.
Clearly, has loose lips and he admits it. But Biden also has gravitas and that is a quality Obama lacks and Obama needs.
Do not think for a second that this will be a team effort.
Obama is in charge and he needs a number two with a name and experience --- not a partner.
Obama's style of leadership does not lend itself to taking Biden seriously.
Biden will stand tall and to the side of the presidential candidate and be there to deflect some of the serious critique leveled at Obama regarding his inexperience.
But it will be Obama, by himself, who will have to convince the voter in Middle America that he has what it takes to lead America in prosperity and in crisis.
And that's why, bottom line, the choice of Joe Biden as vice president is about as significant as is the state of Delaware.
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Saturday August 23, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Muammar Ghaddafi's son Saif al- Islam Ghaddafi has always been seen as successor to the dictator.
But yesterday in a televised speech from the southern Libyan city if Subha, the young Ghaddafi resigned form any current and future politics.
In his speech Ghadaffi, Jr. portrayed the Arab world as "a forest of dictatorships." He called for transformation.
This is significant, very significant.
The positive changes that have been taking place in Libya have mostly been attributed to young Ghaddafi's influence on his father and his pressure to open Libya to the West.
Considering that the United States just concluded an important settlement with Libya this resignation will send a shockwave throughout the Arab world.
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Saturday August 23, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Today the Democrats announce their candidate for vice president.
No one ever votes for a President because of the Vice President on the ticket.
I cannot stress that point often enough.
Only the party really cares about a VP.
And at this post-primary stage no candidate cares that much about a single state to choose a running mate based on geography.
What is important now is that the Democrats will get a bump in the polls when the vice presidential choice is announced.
And the Democrats will get a bump in the pools from their convention.
The Democrats are hoping to extend that bump by announcing the VP just before their convention.
It might backfire.
As it is conventions are generally tedious and except for that one or two exciting moments, which will be re-run again and again, they are more of a turn off than a draw.
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Friday August 22, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Bashar Assad's trip to Russia has created some international ripples.
Ripple # 1: Assad offered to let Russia establish a missile base in Syria in order to counter balance the gesture made by the Poles permitting US missile in Poland.
Ripple # 2: Syria intends to purchase more Russian-made, medium range, surface-to-air missiles, and new MIG fighter jets to use as protection from Israel.
Ripple # 3: Syria supported Russia against Georgia. The only other state that publicly supported Russia on this was Belarus.
Israel is watching this entire meeting and monitoring the results very carefully - but very quietly.
The United States could not keep quiet.
The US has said that Syria should not "meddle" in Russia/Georgia affairs.
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Friday August 22, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The polls.
People speak of polls as if they are oracles that predict the future.
Yes, the gap between Obama and McCain in the polls is closing.
But there is still a degree of error of about 3%.
People always assume that the 3% brings the numbers closer together.
But in fact that 3% could just as readily move the numbers further apart.
That is why we must not only look at polls, we must also interpret trends.
Trends are just as important and revealing as poll numbers.
A trend that is moving slowly but significantly in one direction can mean more the results of poll.
To the casual observer it looks as if McCain is gaining in the polls-he is not.
The McCain polling numbers have stayed about the same these past four months, it is the Obama numbers that have fallen.
Sometimes, slow but steady really does win the race.
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Thursday August 21, 2008
Column:
The Zionist dream is alive and well.
Refugees are once again abandoning their place of birth, enduring great physical hardship and risking their lives to enter the Land of Israel. These are not the Jews of Europe, fleeing anti-Semitism, yearning for their ancestral home. They are not the Jews of Iraq, expelled from their homes and hiking across borders to take refuge in the land of their biblical forefathers. They are not the Jews of Ethiopia who walked for hundreds of miles and hundreds of days to escape persecution before they were, finally, airlifted to safety in Israel.
They are Muslims.
They are survivors from Darfur.
And only the lucky ones make it. Since January of this year nineteen people have been shot to death at the border between Egypt and Israel. Hundreds of others have illegally but safely and successfully crossed the border into Israel.
The Jewish government of Israel allows these non-Jewish escapees who have made their way across the fertile plain to enter their country unharmed. The Egyptian Arab government shoots to kill as fellow Muslims attempt to leave their country. How ironic. How very sad.
Egyptian policy is to use lethal force, that's the way they do things. Israeli policy is to offer medical plans.
Despite all the horrific anti-Israel vitriol than pervades the Muslim world, despite the lessons of hate that children are taught from their earliest years in schools and in places of worship, these people fleeing for their lives know that escape to Israel is one of their only chances of survival. They risk danger in order to enter the Land of Zion, in order to achieve their own dreams of coming to Israel.
Persecuted Jews came to Israel in order to transform their Jewish experience from one of being the victim to one of being the defender. They came to be a part of a society that is new, vibrant and free of oppression. So, too, with today's refugees entering Israel. What makes Israel so exciting to the people of Darfur and other parts of Africa, what makes Israel so enticing, so worth the risk of getting there is the life they will lead once there. Freedom is a hard commodity to come by in most of the world, even today.
The story of the miracle of Israel has taken hold in the hearts and minds of oppressed people - even oppressed Muslims in far away Africa. In Israel, the Jews made the desert bloom. And in Israel they provide health care and offer education to everyone regardless of religion or color or citizenship.
The Darfur Muslims now entering Israel are given a home and a haven. When Jews were in trouble the gates of the world were shut to them. Israel will never shut the gates - not to Jews and not to any peoples in need. Just like the stranded Boat People of Viet Nam who entered Israel in 1978 when the world was willing to let them die and few other countries were granting refuge, most of the Darfur refugees who made it to Israel will find their place in Israeli culture and society.
It is still unclear how Israel will process the new population illegally entering the country. Some have been arrested and some have been granted refugee status, some have been granted citizenship and some are living in tent camps. But a solution will be found, the process has begun and the refugees are still attempting to make their way to freedom in the State of Israel.
One thing is for sure, they are not being shot at at the border - not as they enter and not if they choose to one day leave.
So how do these Muslims fit into the Zionist dream?
They don't. But Israel will see to it that they will.
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Wednesday August 20, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Russians are fuming.
A lot of their anger is directed at Israel.
The Russians held a press conference yesterday where they assert that 8 varieties of important military equipment were given to Georgia by Israel.
Now Russia intends to exact revenge.
Syrian President Bashar Assad will be in Moscow on Thursday.
Assad will get the Russian point of view.
The Russians will tell Assad what they think about Israel, about the role of Israel in the Region and about the Russia perception of Israel's strengths and weaknesses.
The Syrian leader will pay close attention to the Russian assessment.
My fear is that the Russians might not properly estimate Israel.
Russia may misrepresent Israel's strengths and weaknesses - not out of deliberate disinformation but because they are so outraged and angry right now that they will have blind spots when assessing Israel's capabilities.
That could lead to some very wrong and very dangerous conclusions.
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Wednesday August 20, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Daniel B. Shapiro was just appointed the Jewish front man for Barack Obama's presidential campaign.
Shapiro has a very difficult yet simple job.
On the one hand Jews vote Democratic.
On the other hand Jews are not very trusting of Obama on Israel.
Shapiro has experience.
He was part of the National Security Council under Clinton. He advised Sandy Berger. He was a member of the staff of Lee Hamilton for the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs. He was posted in the United Arab Emirates. He was an adviser to Diane Feinstein on foreign affairs and has been a member of the Council on Foreign Relations since 2004.
We'll see what happens.
I hope that past experience will help him advise properly today.
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Tuesday August 19, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Khaled Mashaal, the true leader of Hamas, is going to visit Jordan this week.
Until now Mashaal has not been permitted to even enter Jordan.
Now he has agreed to abide by the terms set down by the Jordanians.
One of those terms is the promise not to foment hatred against Abdullah, King of Jordan.
What does Mashaal get out of this visit?
Mashaal will have official meetings with government figures and with intelligence officials.
What do the Jordanians get out of this visit?
The Jordanians will have the opportunity to truly assess the vision, objectives and capabilities of Hamas in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Gaza and the West Bank.
That information is crucially important.
That information will not be easy to exact because Mashaal knows exactly what the Jordanians want.
Hamas does not operate like other organizations - that point must be made perfectly clear.
Hamas has no day-to-day plan and Hamas has no short term plan.
What Hamas does have is a long term objective.
Hamas has nothing in between.
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Tuesday August 19, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
We are all caught up in Olympic fever.
But Condi Rice, speaking on a Sunday talk show, made one of the most naïve statements ever to be spoken aloud by a United States secretary of state.
Condi Rice said she hopes that, in the near future, Saudi women will be able to compete in the Olympics.
We all would hope that would happen - but it cannot.
The Saudi royal family is in charge and Saudi women are prohibited from wearing anything approaching Western dress let alone athletic outfits.
Women in Saudi Arabia cannot drive without their husband alongside.
Women in Saudi Arabia cannot see a doctor without their husband's permission.
Forget about the amount of practice it would take to qualify.
Just think about how much time it would take for Saudi society to acculturate to the point that would even permit women to participate.
Just think about the soul searching and think about the reforms the Saudi ruling family would have to make.
Just think, Condi, think before you speak.
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Monday August 18, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Iran made 2 important announcements yesterday.
Announcement # 1:
They have new fighter planes that can fly 3000 kilometers.
The Iranians did not go into details.
We do not know what kind of planes they are or if the planes are outfitted with extra fuel tanks that dislodge when empty.
Any way you read it that is not good news for us.
Announcement # 2:
They have launched their own satellite.
It is not a spy satellite or a defense satellite, it is a satellite totally built by and launched by Iran.
In 2005 Iran launched a satellite using Russian technology and the satellite disappeared. Now they are doing it all themselves. That proves how far the Iranians have come when it comes to space technology.
It means that spy satellites and weapons satellites are right around the corner for Iran.
That is important.
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Monday August 18, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Expect to see and hear rabbis at the Democratic National Convention.
Rabbi David Sapperstein, a reform rabbi from DC and head of the Reform Action Center which champions social action causes, will deliver the invocation.
Rabbi Mark Schneier, an orthodox rabbi from the Upper East Side of Manhattan and Westhampton who champions many causes including Muslim Jewish dialogues, will deliver a speech.
Rabbi Amy Schwartzman, a reform rabbi from Falls Church Virginian who has worked passionately against poverty and for the homeless and has tried to make her causes into significant Jewish issues, will deliver a speech.
Barack Obama has peppered his podium with dynamic and powerful Jewish leaders who have used their communal leadership positions to build bridges with the greater community.
It is an interesting move on Obama's part.
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Sunday August 17, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Last week Syria and Lebanon agreed to establish and normalize diplomatic relations.
The next day they established a committee to lay out the border between the countries.
Syria and Lebanon have organized committees in the past and they have all failed.
Relations have never been normal between these two countries.
Syria would never tolerate such a relationship.
Syria has always understood Lebanon to be a province of Syria not a separate independent country.
But the world is different and Syria is actually feeling world pressure.
We may be witnessing the result of the huge amounts of pressure the West have been exerting on Syria.
Syria is further along now it terms of global cooperation than it has ever been.
Let's not applaud yet, let's watch and see if this is true change or cosmetic PR.
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Sunday August 17, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Last night Rev. Rick Warren hosted an hour long discussion on the candidates.
The discussion, held in the Reverend's Saddleback Church in California, was truly telling.
I saw an almost total reversal of character.
Candidate Obama was long and round about.
Candidate McCain was short and clipped.
McCain spoke movingly about almost everything including personal failures. Obama was much less personal.
McCain was punching away, answering even before the question was finished. He bantered, he was congenial.
Obama was more in lecture mode and matter of fact.
His cadence lacked the sprite step of his youth.
In short, Obama was laid back and McCain was pumped up.
I look forward to further discussions between the candidates.
This is an ever-changing race.
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Saturday August 16, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The truth is often stranger than fiction.
The story:
A family claiming to be from Sudan applied to be refugees in Israel.
They explained that they escaped Darfur, crossed all of Egypt and then secretly and skillfully crossed into Israel.
Safely in Israel the family applied to remain in the Jewish State.
As they were being processed, the application hit a snag.
The snag:
The names of two of the six children seemed to be out of place.
They were Uday and Qusay, the names of the children of Saddam Hussein.
The result:
The application was denied.
The family was not really from Darfur, they were from Iraq.
They were just trying to get to Israel, a better place to live.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The United States blew it when it came to intelligence on Russia and Georgia.
That mistake will set back US diplomacy for a significant amount of time.
The US should have seen this conflict coming.
The signs were there:
# 1: over the past few years the Russians have granted citizenship to so many Ossetians and Abkhazians that the majority of the people of the region are now Russian citizens
# 2: the Russians made it obvious to everyone just how threatened they were over the possibility of Georgia (and the Ukraine) joining NATO
# 3: Russia was seriously distraught that not one but two pipelines, one for gas and one for oil, bypass Russia and go through Georgia
# 4: the Western-style approach of Georgian President Saakashvilli was a direct slap in the face to Russia.
Not to see these things means that people were asleep at the wheel.
I always gave the Intel community the benefit of the doubt in the Middle East because they really do not understand Islam - but here it is another story.
If Georgia falls Western intell will effectively be shut out of the Caucasus'.
If Georgia falls major oil and gas wealth from the Caspian Sea will fall into the control of Russia.
The handwriting on the wall was there, the United States just didn't bother to read it.
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Friday August 15, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
By now most people know about Iranian vice president Mashai.
As I wrote several weeks ago, he is the Iranian official who said that Iran is friends with all people in the world, even the US and Israel.
Not surprisingly, that quote was quickly taken down from his webpage.
As for the people who actually heard him, they were shocked.
Mashai tried to say that he had been misheard and misunderstood.
He tried to put a spin on his statement saying that he meant "no hostility towards" rather than "friends with."
Official Iran did not buy his explanation.
Mashai will be removed from his position.
Mashai's career is shot. But in truth, he is really not far off the mark. The people of Iran do not dislike Israel or the US, it's just that Iranian leaders are not supposed to say it aloud and publicly.
To complicate matters a bit, I should point out that Mashai was a real insider.
So much so, that Mashai's daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son.
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Friday August 15, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Russia has threatened the United States.
The Russians are saying that America must choose between a real foreign diplomacy relationship with them or a virtual relationship with Georgia.
The Russians masterfully played their hand by invading Georgia at a time when they knew the US would really do nothing.
At the time, it was a win-win scenario.
Now, however, they may be overplaying their hand.
Russia thinks they understand the United States.
The Russians think that Washington needs to play with the big boys to control the world.
The Russians are mistaken.
There is but one overarching foreign policy vision (outside of economics) for any US administration --- the support of developing democracies.
Russia is a quickly shrinking democracy.
Georgia is a quickly growing democracy.
The conflict between Russia and Georgia may be dying down, but Congress and the next administration are going to remember the events of this summer.
Russia can threaten, but the United States is committed to aiding, assisting and supporting Georgia now and in the near future.
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Thursday August 14, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Israel anticipated the Russian-Georgia conflict late in 2007.
Israel squelched an arms deal with Georgia.
Until then, Israel was pretty actively arming Georgia.
But this was a deal for the Merkava tank, arguably the safest and most mobile tank in the world.
Russia took serious umbrage over the impending sale.
After looking carefully at the situation Israel felt that that Georgia-Russian situation was too volatile and so Israel backed out of the deal.
Over the years, whenever Israel challenged Russia about selling weapons to Syria saying that those weapons would fall into the hands of terrorists the Russians would throw it back in the face of the Israelis.
The Russians would say: When you stop selling to Georgia we can talk about stopping our sales to Syria.
Israel stopped selling arms to Georgia.
The Russians are still selling arms to Syria.
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Thursday August 14, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The United States holds no leverage over Russia in their conflict in Georgia.
I repeat, the United States holds no leverage over Russia in their conflict in Georgia - and the world knows it.
The world sees that the US has no power to stop Russia.
And that is very frightening:
The bad guys, the rogue nations, can see how the United States has done nothing to aid a friend and to stop Russia.
And they are pleased.
What can the United States do short of a military strike?
How effective is diplomacy?
What good is international condemnation?
What good is it being a friend of the United States when the United States is as paralyzed as every other nation?
The United States can stand on its head, but Russia will end this conflict when Russia wants it to end.
It does not matter how many presidents or how many foreign ministers arrive in Tiblisi - and that includes Secretary of State Rice - it will end when Russia wants it to end.
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Wednesday August 13, 2008
Column:
The biggest military threat Israel faces is not Iran, the biggest threat is a combined attack against Israel involving Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. What we call in sports a pile on. I have been analyzing this potential threat for many months now. That specific attack is a worst case scenario - a coordinated effort during which Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah missiles and rockets come pummeling into Israel all at the same time. The result would be more devastating than any war Israel has been involved in since the creation of the state.
On Tuesday August 5, 2008 the Strategic Air Command in Israel conducted an exercise that precisely simulated my worst predictions and fears. The exercise was not intended to be kept a secret. It was made public and was filmed by Israel's Channel 10 News and reported on by the popular Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1008808.html
It was intended as a warning.
The exercise was an overwhelming success. Of course, certain elements will require tweaking but should Israel become the target of a three pronged attack by Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, Israel will mount a successful defense. Yes, the Israeli military will be able to defend the citizens of Israel in a worst case scenario attack.
The further Israel gets from the worst case scenario, the fewer enemy players involved in the attack, the better the odds are for Israel. Fewer enemy nations translates into higher odds. How does Israel stay out of the worst case scenario? By managing their own three pronged, non-military, attack - threats, disincentives and classic cold war tactics.
The ultimate objective is to frighten Israel's enemies and aggressors. Those countries intent on destroying Israel must know that if they were ever to attack Israel or join forces with Iran, Syria or Hezbollah in order to destroy Israel, their own potential for loss would be significantly greater than the internal, Muslim and Arab world glory they would gain for attacking the Zionist infidel state.
The Arab world is struggling under the weight of a double message about Israel. Message one perpetuates the conspiracy theory of the greatness of Israel and Israel's military might. Message two speaks to a growing sense that Israel's army has faltered and its former glory is fast fading. Israel's military prowess and capability as proved by this latest exercise, combined with Israel's non-military actions, should set the record straight.
Over the past year defense and strategy groups in Israel, Washington and London have spent a great deal of time debating Iran's potential for attacks and the West's ability to counter attacks. Some DC policy planners are of the opinion that Iran's capability is really irrelevant, that Iran will not take the initiative and initiate an attack. The thinking is that Iran has a thousand year history of non-aggression and that history is not about to be altered now. These same people assert that while the real fear is not an Iranian initiated attack, the real fear is an Iranian counter-attack. They are of the belief that if Iran is pushed, if Iran interprets Western actions as insults, that may well trigger what the Iranians will view as a counter attack. Is it a game of semantics? It is. Is it a game of perceptions? It is. Either way, it is a dangerous situation.
Israel does not have the luxury of banking on a historical precedent. Semantics and perceptions are no longer relevant when an attack is launched. Israel must prepare for the worst possible scenario if only to repel the bluster that Iran is perpetually spouting. Iran is trying desperately to become the epicenter of the world. Iran wants all eyes on Iran. And that explains why, for example, in response to an ultimatum and deadline calling for Iran to cease and desist in the development of uranium the Iranians arrogantly, conceitedly and openly proclaimed that they had no plans of the sort.
The Iranians were playing to the Muslim world. They were hoping to galvanize the Muslim world against the West under the leadership of Teheran. The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Mohammad Ali Jafari, held a press conference and announced that Iran had just tested a new anti-ship missile that could sink "enemy ships" at a range of more than 200 miles. http://www.nysun.com/foreign/iran-threatens-to-shut-strait-of-hormuz/83142
He asserted that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz with ease, he said: "Enemies know that we are easily able to block the Strait of Hormuz for an unlimited period."
Everyday about 35% of the world's oil travels through the Straits of Hormuz on its way to Africa and Asia. It does not matter whether Iran is capable of closing the Straits either for the long or short term. The threat alone will have a cataclysmic effect on markets and world economies.
Iran's threats need to be taken seriously by the West because they are being taken seriously by the Muslim world. And one day another Muslim country just might decide to take up the cause and join Iran in an attack against the West. And if that happens a very bad scenario becomes worse.
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Tuesday August 12, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Israeli Olympic swimmer Guy Barnea broke an Israeli record in his heats on Sunday.
He received a phone call of congratulations from President Shimon Peres who is in Beijing watching the games.
So where is the humor?
The swimmer thought it was a teammate imitating the president's very distinctive voice and cadence.
He could not believe it was actually Peres on the line.
After the confusion, they both had a good laugh.
So can we.
That's democracy at its best.
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August 12, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Relations between Russia and Georgia have been strained ever since the Soviet Union was taken apart. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union South Ossetia has been in Georgia, but South Ossetia has always wanted independence.
They have their own flag, language and culture.
In 1992 the Russians were appointed peacekeeping observers of Ossetia. They were there to maintain the status quo and to protect Ossetia from dominance by Georgia.
In 2006 Ossetia had a national referendum and declared independence.
The entire world ignored their call for independence - including Georgia.
When Russia saw that Georgia was intensifying its hold on Ossetia they took it as a threat to their Russian observer status.
The great bear pounced - ostensibly to protect Ossetia but really out of self interest.
Russia crossed the border - literally and figuratively - and attacked Georgia proper.
Now we have big guns, death and destruction.
Russia will not back down until the Russian objective has been achieved.
The Russian objective is to tone down Georgia vis a vis Ossetia.
The situation will never return to status quo.
These wounds never heal.
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Monday August 11, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
German police shut down an adventure camp near Rostock in Northern Germany on Sunday.
It was a Neo-Nazi camp.
The police sent 39 campers, children and teenagers, home.
The police confiscated original propaganda dating from the early 20th century.
The police found numerous other items emblazoned with swastikas.
This should not come as a shock.
The Neo-Nazi movement is alive and growing fast in Western Europe.
These movements are particularly anti-immigrant and xenophobic.
The new Neo-Nazi movements are independent, but they have international support - especially internet and web support.
Most of these groups use similar websites for their information, news and even tactical how-tos like creating summer camp programs for children and teenagers.
Beware.
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Monday August 11, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
South Ossetia, Georgia and Russia. What a hornet's nest.
The United States is preparing a resolution for the United Nations Security Council that will condemn Russia for its involvement in this conflict.
The Russians say that anti-Russian bias has crippled the ability of the world to see what is really happening.
Let me make it really simple:
On November 12, 2006 South Ossetia declared its independence from Georgia. There are about 70,000 people in South Ossetia.
The Declaration of Independence was not recognized.
South Ossetia continued to be a hot spot under Georgian control.
Russia was supposed to keep the peace but instead chose to support the Ossetian separatists.
Then the situation began to escalate:
On August 8th the Russian Air Force bombed Georgia - the Georgian Army invaded South Ossetia.
Now the world is shouting Russia get out and in response Russia is saying if you side with the Georgians your diplomatic relations with us will suffer.
Finally, Russia gives a damn about something other than money - but at what price?
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Sunday August 10, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Olympics is about sports, about competition, about triumph and tears and about touching moments.
The Iranians have put a damper on the games by insisting that no Iranians see, compete or touch an Israeli.
On Saturday an Iranian swimmer disqualified himself because an Israeli was in the same heat.
But on Su