Tuesday September 16, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Syrian leadership has begun a strategic move to try to retake domestic control.

Over the past few years Iran has insinuated itself into much of the daily power of Syria. Iran often uses proxies to accomplish their tasks but in Syria they have had alot of direct involvement, too.

But Syrian leader Bashar Assad is starting to feel that far too much power is falling under the control of Iran.
Bashar Assad cannot speak about this to Iran, nor can he expel Iran entirely.
Bashar Assad is too dependent on Iran.

The one way Assad has to strike out at Iran is through the proxies.
The proxies are small and weak and operate purely at the blessing of Assad. Now Assad wants them muted.
The best example of exerting his power over a proxy is to choose Hamas.

A few days ago Hisham Labadani, the secretary to Khallad Mashaal the head of the Hamas, was publicly executed.
This is no small event, it sent shock waves throughout the entire region.
Hitting such a public Hamas leader in broad daylight and dragging him from his car in a city square was a strong message.
There have been rumors that Khallad Mashaal and Hamas leaders were preparing to relocate to Sudan.
This may be Assad's way of nudging or pushing Hamas to get them out.

Assad is taking back Syria.
The process will be slow and I would not get too excited about change or a major Syrian shift away from Iran just yet, but this is definitely a significant step toward Syrian independence.

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