Sunday October 26, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

The national Zogby Poll of potential voters came out today.
Zogby, which has a degree of error of 2.9, places Obama ahead of McCain by only 5 points at 49 - 44.
On Thursday the same poll was had a 12 point spread.

What is happening?
Zogby does the polling but the poll is sponsored by Reuters and C-SPAN.
Quite a lot of money goes into creating a representative sample and making certain that it is exactly that - representative.

One possibility is that the disparity in poll numbers from Thursday to Sunday tells us that people have started to change their minds and move away from Obama toward McCain. 7 points is huge for 3 days. It could be an anomaly or it could be a huge pendulum swing which then often swings back to find itself somewhere in the middle. That would give Obama an 8.5 point lead.

The other possibility is that the new results are a trend that is brought on by the quick approach of the finish line.

There is still time. We will see what happens in the next few days.

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