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About Politics
By Micah Halpern

Thursday October 30, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Last night AP announced that according to their polls Obama has won.
According to the AP polls Obama has hurdled the electoral college with the 270 votes needed for victory.
According to the AP polls Obama won over 23 states plus the District of Columbia giving him 286 electoral college votes.

The AP data says that even if McCain wins all the states in question he cannot win the election.

Now we have a problem.
It is not clear to me that polling of the states is all that accurate.
In Florida it is accurate because so much money went into Florida to get a good set of samples to insure that this election Florida will not be the disaster it was during the previous election. But that is only Florida, not the other 49.

These state polls cannot statistically represent the state. It is just too difficult and would take too much money to get a fair sample and accurate assessment of states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Internal campaign pollsters are getting accurate numbers.
That is because the campaigns have what the media pollsters do not have - people working the field who can help the statisticians get closer to a representative sampling of the state.

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4 June 2017 12:14 PM in Thoughts


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