Wednesday October 22, 2008

I've Been Thinking:

Those of you who read me regularly will not be surprised to know that the polls are swinging yet again.

The polls are much like a rubber band.
And the rubber band effect is happening right now.
Like rubber bands, polling results expand and contract.
The objective of the winner is to get the rubber band to expand in your direction on the eve of election day.

Looking at both national polling data and individual state data we see that the numbers are shifting.
For John McCain, that is good news.
The good news for Barack Obama is that this shift might be occurring too early. Line any rubber band, it will soon contract.
Everyone is watching this trend as McCain's numbers increase.

If the Republican nominee's numbers climb slowly and progressively from day to day as he leaches votes from Obama, the expansion will probably last longer.

If the Republican nominee's numbers expand fast and furious, the rubber band will probably rebound sooner than November 4th.

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