Friday March 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It comes as no surprise.
Israel's indirect talks with Hamas to free captive soldier Gilad Shalit have failed.

The given is that negotiating with Hamas by way of a third party almost always ends in failure.
Talks of this sort succeed when neither side expects very much.
This time, both sides wanted a lot.

Expectations were high at one point. It seemed as if a resolution was close at hand. And then, just as the negotiations approached the final stages, Hamas did what it often does. Hamas overplayed their hand and it all collapsed.

Two factors explain why Hamas' perspective became warped enough to warrant a last minute change in demands.
# 1: The end was in sight. Hamas realized that Israel could "taste" Gilad Shalit's release. That emboldened Hamas. Hamas believed that they could ask for pie in the sky because Israel wanted the release so very badly and because the end was so near.
# 2: Hamas kept tabs on the Israeli press and witnessed the public pressure that was being placed on the political leadership to come to a resolution. They became convinced that Israeli leadership would bend.

Hamas never realized that Israel had lines drawn in the sand.
Gilad Shalit remains captive, 999, 1,000, 1,001 days and counting.

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