Monday March 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

An election is scheduled to take place in Iran on June 12.
In Iran the only vote that counts is the vote cast by The Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei.

Even though Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has not declared his official candidacy, it is assumed that, based on comments and statements, The Supreme Leader will tap him for another term.

Iran's reformers are in crisis.
The reformers have 4 candidates for president.
Four candidates is a recipe for failure.
The job of the reformers is to convince The Supreme Leader that they can maintain the religious conservatism of Iran and improve Iran's dire economic conditions.

Ahmadinejad has the religious angle on his side, but he has failed on the economic track. If the reformers can make a convincing argument for economic growth they might have a chance, but not if they are fractionalized.

A possible contender to Ahmadinejad, former president and Ayatollah Muhammad Khatami, has rescinded his candidacy in order to solidify the candidacy of former Prime Minister Hussein Mousavi.
The Khatami contingent hopes that this move will prove to The Supreme Leader that they are both politically unified and politically wise and that he will bestow his vote upon them.

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