Tuesday June 9, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

I have been analyzing the world of Hezbollah post Sunday's election in Lebanon.
For Hezbollah this election was actually a win - win situation.

If the Hezbollah block would have won the election, they would impose their issues on Lebanon top down. But they would have been uncomfortable. Hezbollah does not lead from the mainstream and cannot govern from the middle. Of course, no one would oppose their authority.

Now Hezbollah is in a very comfortable position. Because they are in the opposition they can attack the army. They can resist being disarmed and use any attempts against them as a battle cry for the loyal opposition. Hezbollah can instigate civil strife and incite near civil war. And even as a minority, Hezbollah still has total veto power over the government. That is what they did to the last government in Lebanon.

The up side in losing for Hezbollah is that they have the power to control, act, respond and sound off without any of the responsibility of government leadership.

The down side in losing for Hezbollah is that they intended to turn Lebanon into an Islamic state, like Iran.

The unfortunate reality is that the newly elected ruling party in Lebanon will not exert control over Hezbollah which means that, de facto, Hezbollah will have carte blanche to do whatever Hezbollah wants to do.

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