Sunday June 7, 2009

I'm Predicting:

Lebanon goes to the polling booths today.
What happens over the next four years is to be determined today.

These are not just any ballots being cast, this is an electoral ballot pitting Western influences against Iranian influences.
This battle is between Islam and non-Islamic cultures.
This battle is between Hezbollah and everyone else.
It is a battle for the 128 seats in the Lebanese parliament.

In the outgoing Lebanese parliament the division was 70-58 in favor of the Western alliance. And even with that margin the Western coalition was relatively powerless to exert true control and ineffective in clamping down on Hezbollah's intimidation and terrorist acts within Lebanon.

Advanced election polling makes this vote too close to call.
There is little chance that better than 70-58 will emerge from this election.
There is a strong chance that Hezbollah will emerge with a plurality and create the ruling coalition. If that happens it will be a significant step forward for Iran and its influence in the region and the world. If that happens we will see a massive exodus of Christians and Druze from Lebanon. If that happens the future of Lebanon will be altered for more than the four years because the liberal elements will leave never to return.

Of course, Jimmy Carter is in place to make certain things go well.

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