Sunday June 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

When you look below the surface of the elections in Iran, you see the huge tension that exists between the two leading clerics.
The Supreme Leader, The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is pitted against the former president if Iran, The Ayatollah Ali Akbar Rafsanjani.

They are political rivals and have been political rivals for some time.
They are both proteges of the founder of the Revolution, the Ayatollah Khomeini.

Religiously they are cut of the same cloth.
What differentiates them is that Rafsanjani has taken a more pragmatic approach to the Islamic revolution while Khamenei has taken a more strict approach.
Parenthetically, Rafsanjani has been taken down a notch in this internal religious conflict. He is referred to as the "shark" a name he got because in politics he is positively ruthless.

Rafsanjani has sided with Mousavi and it is that combo of dynamic personalities that resonated on the streets of Iran as an anti-Ahmadinejad vote.
But it never had a chance.
Why? Because despite the fact the Rafsanjani is the head of two very important religious councils in Iran - he is not The Supreme Leader.

Therein lie the strength, the power and the end game.
Iran cannot and will not over throw Ahmadinejad because really, he is only a slight variation on the leadership theme of Mousavi.
In the end, all the players pay homage to the same vision and allegiance to the same principles.

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