Wednesday September 30, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A New York Arab businessman, known as Abdul Tawala Ibn Ali Alishtari aka Michael Mixon, pled guilty to funneling over $150,000 to a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan.

Alishtari also pled guilty to defrauding millions of dollars from investors in an investment scheme.

This is a great victory for the prosecution in the United States.
The United States has had difficulty convicting terrorists.
The best way to keep convictions coming is to make certain that the defendants confess.

Bravo.

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Tuesday September 29, 2009

I'm Predicting:

Iran is setting a trap.
They are testing missiles only days before the supposed meeting with the 6 countries on the topic of the Iran's nuclear status.

Iran's actions are calculated and totally predictable.
Israel is getting nervous.
Other Western countries are uncertain about how to proceed.

After yesterday's test launch Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi put it all into perspective.
He said: "If this [Israeli attack] happens, which of course we do not foresee, its ultimate result would be that it expedites the Zionist regime's last breath."

Iran will walk away from the meeting with their head held high.
Iran will portray the entire gathering as an anti-Muslim witch hunt.
Iran will claim that they are entitled to develop nuclear technology.

Iran is setting a trap and the world will walk right in.

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Monday September 28, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is snubbing its nose at the United States and at the West.

On Sunday Iran tested 3 short range missiles, today they test their long range Shabab-3.

The Shabab-3 has a 1250 mile range and can easily hit Israel.
The Shabab-3, tipped with a non-conventional weapon, will probably be Iran's weapon of choice when their nuclear development is complete.

Iran's short range missiles are important, too.
The Fatah Tandoor and the Zilzal fit into the Iranian arsenal and will become essential exports to Hezbollah and Hamas.

It is not accidental that Iran is conducting these tests and conducting them now.
Iran chose to test their missiles on Yom Kippur to inform Israel that their judgment day is near.

General Hussein Salami, head of Iran's air-force says that Iran will teach the West and Israel a lesson: "We are capable of supplying a devastating quick response to our enemy." He went on to say that Israel should get its own house in order, "it is best that the Zionist entity…deal with its own problems."

Iran is very serious.
Iran is sending another important message - we must pay attention and make certain that we interpret the Iranian message correctly.

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Sunday September 27, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Farouk Hosni really is evil.

Hosni is the Egyptian Minister of Culture who tried to become Director of UNESCO five times - and lost each time.
He is the man who wanted to burn all the Israeli books in Egypt.
He is the man who claimed to have repented and changed his ways.

The real Farouk Hosni has surfaced again.
In interviews with newspapers in Egypt and the United Arab Republic he is claiming that he lost because the Jews conspired against him and because of racism.

Hosni has announced that he is renewing his position against normalizing ties with Israel and embarking on a culture war against Israel. He wants Egypt to dwarf Israel in a war against Israeli tyranny and colonialism.

The world is very lucky that Farouk Hosni was not elected in last week's election.
Surprisingly, Israel removed its objections to Hosni, but many other human rights leaders in the West refused to drop their reservations against him.
Throughout the campaign Hosni apologized for his past and claimed to have grown and matured.
I was very skeptical.
Now we see that Farouk Hosni will always be true to his convictions.

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Saturday September 26, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad canceled a press conference at the UN on Friday. That is historic. Ahmadinejad never misses a chance to rail on the West and on the USA.
Ahmadinejad had a great opportunity to get on the front pages of newspapers around the world, and he chose not to.
That is historic

Ahmadinejad cancelled his press conference because he cannot speak without answering questions. And he did not want to be asked about Iran's newly publicized nuclear plants.

Ahmadinejad did comment on the nuclear plants in an interview with Time Magazine and in a statement he released. He said that they are not secret. That they informed the IAEA last year about them and the IAEA is invited to inspect them.

Ahmadinejad made two other interesting comments:
He said the US and France would regret their great insult - saying that Iran lied. He said that Iran does not have to answer to Obama.

These two comments are telling. Calling Ahmadinejad and by extension all of Iran deliberate fabricators of the truth is a huge insult. And assuming that all the countries in the world are little children who must answer to Obama is truly infantilizing.

It may be arrogance, but the United States is still the United States.
In order to play, you have to pay and in this case that means being accountable to the US.

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Friday September 25, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

An Iranian exile group headquartered in Paris has delivered critical information about Iran's nuclear technology.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) delivered a series of satellite pictures of two Iranian nuclear facilities to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).
They even gave over the address of a research and development lab in Teheran that is working on key components of the nuclear trigger mechanism.

The IAEA has almost no Intel about what happens inside Iran.
This Iranian exile group is providing information about what Iran is truly doing behind closed doors.
This group and other exile groups have contacts inside Iran and even contacts working inside Iran's nuclear facilities.
Any information the IAEA gets will help point investigators in the right direction.

I hope that Iran does not shut down the lab.
I hope the IAEA gets in there fast enough to see what is happening.

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Thursday September 24, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

It was called a speech, but it really was a diatribe.

Yesterday, Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Ghadaffi, in his address before the General Assembly of the United Nations delivered a diatribe against the West, specifically against the Untied States.

A verbatim repetition of Ghadaffi's speech would be monotonous and counter productive.

The only reason at all to analyze the speech is to shed light on the way the leader of Libya is thinking - to understand what goes on in that mind.

Ghadaffi suggested that the "Security Council" be renamed the "Terror Council." He said that the way the world works, everyone else is made to feel "second class."

Libya is buying into the message that Ahmadinejad and Chavez are spreading. The message is that the current balance of the world is out of balance.

The message is that the world needs a readjustment.

The readjustment would liberate the world from the oppression of the United States.

Ghadaffi repeatedly said that he wants to free the US of their responsibilities.

The truth is, Libya wants to assume more responsibility i.e., Ghadaffi wants to play a larger role in running the world

Libya wants to become a player together with Iran and Venezuela.
That is serious.
That cannot be allowed to happen.

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Wednesday September 23, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations is in the throes of the annual General Assembly.

There have been several terror threats made against the General Assembly. Homeland Security has extended the threat to public entertainment areas all across America.

The question is: Why would Muslim terrorists target the GA?
After all, the United Nations often gives voice to the sentiments and even to the political views of terrorists. All voices are heard in the GA, even those of Muammar Ghadaffi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Robert Mugabe.

The answer is: Terrorists do not care about those who defend them, they care that the GA also houses their enemies. At the GA, the Western world has the same voice as the thugocracies - and that upsets the terrorists. Terrorists do not want equal voices, they want world domination. To them, the United Nations is a symbol of how Islam bends over to accommodate other cultures of the world and that is unacceptable to the Islamic terrorist.

That is why terrorists target the UN and the GA.

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Tuesday September 22, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

We all know that Russia was tickled pink that the United States shelved its missile stations in Poland and Czech.

The level of understanding of most people covering the news and most people reading the news was so low, and in this case so warped, that people thought that the purpose of the missile batteries was to check and challenge Russia.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
The purpose of the missile batteries was to check and challenge Iran.

Now you won't be surprised to learn that yesterday, Iran who came out in support of scrapping the program.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Hassan Ghashghavi explained just how happy the Iranians are about the change in US missile tactics.
He said:
"The Islamic republic welcomes any action that serves to decrease arms races."

Iran just won another round.
For Iran, this was not a win by default - it was a total knockout.
And it was handed to them on a silver platter by the United States of America.

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Monday September 21, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Al Qaeda released two threatening video tapes over the weekend.
The first was released on Friday, the second video was released on Sunday.

Bother al Qaeda videos were in German.
The German government has confirmed the identity of the speaker and confirmed that the threat is real.

The speaker was a German /Moroccan named Bakkay Harack.
The videos lambaste the German government for deploying troops in Afghanistan.
They warn that Germany is in for a "rude awakening" if German troops are not evacuated from Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda is increasing their threats.
Al Qaeda is trying to intimidate Western countries into changing policy on Afghanistan and on Iraq.
Al Qaeda will attempt to strike at Germany but the Germans will hold their ground.

Germany understands that they are in Afghanistan for the very reason they are being threatened.
Germany understands how crucial it is to prevent al Qaeda from influencing and striking out against the West.

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Sunday September 20, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad will be in New York City for the UN General Assembly.
This year, the welcome given to the Iranian president will be even less warm than it was last year.

Iranians have invited numerous people to many events and almost everyone has declined their invitations. Even the Jews who attended last year's events are staying away. Not because of Ahmadinejad's attitude concerning Israel, because of his behavior following the June 12th election that re-elected him.

A dinner party on Thursday night was to be the main Ahmadinejad event.
Last year numerous academics and even Jewish leaders attended a similar event. Last year the attendees came claiming that is was important to speak even to people with whom you disagree. This year that argument cum rationale has fallen by the wayside.

Ahmadinejad will do an NBC interview.
He has received no university invitations from universities.
The Helmsley Hotel cancelled a dinner event that was to take place in their dining room.

This year it seems as if the American people, even if not the American government, are beginning to see Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for who he rally is.

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Saturday September 19, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian media is in a tizzy.
An Egyptian journalist met with the Israeli ambassador.
Newspapers and TV in Egypt are blasting Hala Mustafa, editor of Egypt's Democracy Magazine, for daring to officially meet with Ambassador Shalom Cohen of Israel.

What's the big deal?
An official meeting with the Israeli ambassador means formal recognition of Israel.
Hobnobbing at a cocktail party or passing each other at a movie premier, although it may be planned, is not "official" - a sit down in an office, that's official.

Don't the governments of Israel and Egypt have formal, even peaceful relations?
They do, but it has not yet trickled down to the level of the intelligentsia.
It is classic Egyptian political double messaging.

The Press Association has summoned Mustafa for a hearing because she violated a condition of membership, the "resolution that forbids normalizing ties with Israel."

You got it.
Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel and yet, Egyptian press is forbidden from meeting with the Israeli Ambassador.
That's what you call peace in the Middle East.

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Friday September 18, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

President Obama has decided to cancel the Bush anti-Iranian missile program in Poland and the Czech Republic.

From the very beginning the Russians have been very upset by this US program.
Now the Russians are happier.
But here is something interesting:
On the same day that the US announced the cancellation of the missile program, the US announced that they would be acquiring the Arrow anti-missile system.

The Arrow is the jewel in Israel's crown of defensive weapons sold around the world.
It is the best short range anti-missile system in the world.
Why did the US decide to procure the Arrow?
To help defend its interests in Europe.

Obama seems to be redefining strategic threats.
The danger from Iran does not hinge on a long distance weapon as was thought by the Bush administration.
On this question, it seems that Obama might be on target.
No pun intended.

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Thursday September 17, 2009

Column:

Natan Sharansky, former Soviet dissident, former minister within several governments of Israel, present head of the Jewish Agency and acknowledged chess pro, once said to me, when referring to the conflict between Israel and her Arab neighbors "they are playing with us chess and we are playing with them checkers."

The long time politician, the man who once beat the famous Kasparov, was not paying Israel a compliment.

I was reminded of Sharansky's succinct summary of inept and ineffective foreign affairs and diplomatic maneuverings as I assessed the reaction of the United States of America to the proposal put forth by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

At best, it's a joke.
In the end, the joke will be on us.

There is no logic in the decision by the United States to accept the proposal put forth by Iran as a foundation upon which to begin negotiations. No logic and no mental contortions will convince me that this is a sound, thought through decision by the greatest power in the Western world.

When the Iranians declared that they were preparing a proposal, I knew it would fall short of any serious dialogue on the issues. Unfortunately, I was not disappointed. I read all five pages, well, almost five pages. The document not only falls short in content and depth, it even falls short in length.

The Iranian proposal is well scripted, diplomatic spin.
Iran does not admit that there is a problem. Not once does Iran speak about itself or its nuclear technology. Instead, it spews forth on issues of justice and freedom. It condemns the empires that promote a double standard in the world. The Iranians even, unabashedly, go so far as to volunteer to be part of a dialogue to rectify these injustices.

Iran titled the document "Cooperation for Peace, Justice and Progress." It begins with the words "In the Name of the Almighty." By the second paragraph Iran comes straight to the point. It reads: "Resolution of these problems and creating a world filled with spirituality, friendship ... prosperity, wellness and security requires reorganization and creating an opportunity for broad and collective participation in the management of the world." From there the document cum proposal goes on and on about reorganizing the world - in other words, about ousting the United States and removing all traces of Western orientation.

There is not one word about Iranian nukes. There is not one word about the issue at hand. This proposal should have been publicly dismissed as a non-starter. It was not. On the contrary, it was embraced by the Obama Administration. The Iranians knew what was expected of them, made their own calculation and chose to solve the problem by saying that the problem is not with them but with United States domination of the world.

That the United States accepted this high falutin' gobbly gook at face value and will now use it as a foundation for serious dialogue to help bring the world back from the brink of a nuclear Iran - is simply ludicrous. Iran wants to focus on the sins of America. Iran wants to focus on the problems inflicted on the world because of America. Iran does not want to talk about what Iranian President Ahmadinejad calls Iran's "inalienable rights," Iran's inalienable rights to develop nuclear technology. Yes, the Iranian president had the gall to borrow a phrase from United States President Thomas Jefferson and turn it on the United States.

The situation goes from ludicrous to surreal.
In a recent Friday sermon the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei said that Iran would love to talk to the United States and other Western countries about issues related to nuclear development in the world. Do not make the mistake of thinking that the Ayatollah will ever allow any discussion about Iran's nuclear development. He will not.

Add to that the diplomatic coup pulled off by Iran at the 53rd annual meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna. The function of the IAEA is to be the nuclear watch dog of the United Nations. Iran proposed and successfully passed a resolution that makes it illegal to attack a nuclear site. The resolution was so resoundingly approved that it received the equivalent of the IAEA stamp of official approval.

Secretary of State Clinton pointed out that during the October 1st meeting between Iranian and US officials the discussion will cover nuclear issues. Clinton said she expects serious responses to the tough questions that will be raised. Don't expect too much. Ali Akbar Javanfekr, media adviser for Ahmadinejad, said that Iran will not tolerate threats. He said that accepting Iran as a nuclear power was the "first step" toward normalizing relations with the US and with the West.

How quintessentially Iran.
How distressingly American.

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Wednesday September 16, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Begging never works in diplomacy, especially Middle East diplomacy.
Begging never helps lure a leader over to your side.

The best diplomatic begging can do is to artificially trick the enemy into thinking that you are weaker than you are.
When former US President Bush begged the Saudi king to keep up the oil supply it served no good other than to show the Saudis how enslaved the United States was to Saudi oil.

Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu traveled to Russia last week to beg Putin and Medvedev not to go through with an arms deal to Iran that includes the sale of the S-300, an advanced surface to air missile.

The S-300 is a weapon that could seriously impede an Israeli strike against Iran.
Russia realizes the value of the S-300.
That is why they are selling it, and that is why Iran is buying it.

Inadvertently, Bibi delivered a message to Russia.
He showed Russia just how important those weapons are to the Iranians - and now the Russians may tag on a higher premium to Iran.
More importantly, the weapons' credibility has just been authenticated by the best possible evaluator.

Now Russia will deliver a message to Iran.
Russia will tell Iran just how effective the S-300 will be against an Israeli air strike.

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Tuesday September 15, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Ali Treki stood up proudly and became the new President of the 64th United Nations General Assembly today.
The position of GA President rotates between the five major regions of the world.
Treki is a diplomat from Libya.

The new president takes over for Miguel d'Escoto Brockman a diplomat who had been the Sandinista Foreign Minister from Nicaragua in the 1980's. Brockman held that position during one of the worst periods of South American history. It was a period during which death squads assassinated countless citizens for daring to speak about challenging the Junta - even after the election.

Treki and Brockman are symbols for many Third World nations.
The UN gives voice to parts of the world that would not be heard from and that, honestly, should not be elevated to levels of power.
Like Nicaragua and Libya.

Libya just gave a hero's welcome to their arch terrorist, he of the Lockerbie bombing. The Libyan government even admitted that their own intelligence forces planned and executed the bombing.

It is bad enough that leaders of these nations are given the forum to address the General Assembly on an even footing with peace loving democratic societies.
It is even worse that leaders of these nations are appointed to positions of leadership and responsibility within the United Nations.
The United Nations is supposed to be the world body dedicated to the sanctity of life, human rights, freedom and justice.

This is what makes the United Nations General Assembly such a farce.
Not that these countries should not be represented ... but if their representatives are appointed to be leaders within the United Nations, they should be required to reflect and inspire the principles upon which the United Nations was founded.

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Monday September 14, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu paid a visit to Cairo and met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Netanyahu intended to pay tribute to Mubarak for his role in trying to free Israeli hostage Gilad Shalit who is being held in Gaza by Hamas.

Mubarak took advantage of the moment to promote his role as leader of the Arab world.
He gave Netanyahu a set of moral lessons.
He spoke about the risks and explosiveness of what he called "Judaizing Jerusalem."

Mubarak's spokesman explained that the president of Egypt made it clear to the prime minister of Israel that the Arab world does not care about natural growth.
He made it clear that any Jewish building in Jerusalem is like playing a very dangerous game.

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Sunday September 13, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

In Lebanon today Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlalah, a leading Shiite religious leader, issued a religious ruling called a fatwa.
The fatwa forbids the normalization of ties with Israel.
"Islamic law forbids any normalization of ties with the Zionist enemy."

Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlalah holds no official government advisory position, but he is a well respected religious leader of the Shiite sect.

His rulings are read and followed throughout the Shiite world.

If this is the way Shiite Islam understands Islamic law, what chance is there for ever making peace?

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Saturday September 12, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

I have read all 5 pages of the Iranian proposal.
When the Iranians declared that they were preparing a proposal, I knew it would fall short of any serious dialogue on the issues.
Unfortunately, I was not disappointed.
At best, it is a joke.

Iran does not see that there is a problem.
Not once in the 5 pages does Iran speak about itself and its nuclear technology.
The ridiculously rambling document spews forth on issues of justice and freedom and condemns the empires that promote a double standard in the world.
The Iranians go so far as to volunteer to be part of a dialogue to rectify these injustices.

The document is called "Cooperation for Peace, Justice and Progress."
The document begins with the words "in the Name of the Almighty."
The second paragraph reads, "Resolution of these problems and creating a world filled with spirituality, friendship. Prosperity, wellness and security requires reorganization and creating an opportunity for broad and collective participation in the management of the world."
The proposal goes on and on about reorganizing the world, in other words, about ousting the United States and removing all traces of Western orientation.

Not one word about Iranian nukes.
This proposal is what is considered a non-starter.
Iran knew what was expected of them, made their own calculation and chose to solve the problem by saying that the problem is not with them but with US domination of the world.

How quintessentially Iran.

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Friday September 11, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Eight years ago the world changed.
Eight years ago civilization was transformed.

We must not forget what we learned on September 11, 2001:
There are people who want to destroy the United States.
They want to destroy us because of what we represent.
We represent freedom and democracy and success.

We must not forget what we have learned since September 11, 2001:
There is a growing movement of terrorists who have no home port-of-call.
They train and organize all around the world.
Their targets are chosen from all around the world.
They are unyielding in their hatred of us and of the values we hold dear.

We must be vigilant.
We must learn more.
We must do our best to protect ourselves and our friends.

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Thursday September 10, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

OPEC president Jose Botelho do Vasoncelos delivered his economic forecast at the OPEC meeting in Vienna yesterday.
He said that he was "optimistic that the darkest days of financial turmoil and economic recession are behind us."

The 12 OPEC members control most of the world's oil production.
The economic downturn hit them very hard.

OPEC's prognosis is an essential dimension of economic analysis.
OPEC needs a stronger economy in order to charge more for oil.
OPEC understands that the worse the economy gets, the more people conserve energy & the more people conserve, the less the demand and the lower the price of oil.

I would never wish OPEC well.
But I do hope that this prediction is correct.
I hope that the economy has bottomed out.

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Wednesday September 9, 2009

Column:

One wears tailored suits, the other wears leisure suits. One wears silk ties, the other sports open colors. Despite their apparent differences, they are cut of the same cloth.

Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad despise everything Western. Most of their venom is aimed at anything emanating from the United States. Destroying the West and especially the United States is their individual and united goal. If these leaders of Venezuela and Iran cannot bring down the United States militarily, they will do everything in their collective power to do it diplomatically. It is the glue that holds this unlikely pair together. It is the reason that Chavez has just completed his eighth visit to Iran.

The war against terror is not over, it has taken another, expanded, form. Eight years after 9/11 the West still has enemies. The United States is still being plotted against. Our enemies are not sleeping, neither should we.

Hugo Chavez, the despotic leader of Venezuela, has just concluded a four day trip to Iran. Chavez and the tyrannical Ahmadinejad smiled and shook hands for the camera. And they initiated a new set of deals that will not only propel their relationship forward but that will also, and perhaps more importantly for them, fortify a new bulwark against the United States and the West.

As part of his eleven day trip abroad Chavez also visited Libya, Syria and several European nations including Spain, Russia and Belarus. But Iran was the most important stop of all, because it was in Iran that an outright plan to topple the West was meticulously planned and proudly, publicly, proclaimed.

It goes without saying that Venezuela is wholeheartedly in favor or a nuclear Iran and will do everything to support it and make it happen. Chavez publicly praised Iran for standing up the United States and not giving in to US "blackmail." That alone would be unsettling, not threatening. The plan, in their own translated words, has Chavez and Ahmadinejad creating a "multi polar world" to confront US influence. As Chavez so succinctly put it, we are "facing the same enemy, which is the U.S. empire and its lackeys. And we will defeat the empire and its lackeys."

Those are fighting words. This is not wishful thinking or even grandstanding. Chavez and Ahmadinejad have a plan and they are about to implement that plan. Three agreements, building blocks for the plan, emerged from this trip.

The first is the creation of a mutual Iranian-Venezuelan bank in Caracas with an already pledged $200 million dedicated to mutual investment.

The second is a promise by Chavez to export 20,000 barrels of refined oil to Iran every day. That agreement sidesteps the pressure that the United States was planning to bring upon all potential local oil suppliers to Iran.

The third is the decision to mutually dedicate $750 million towards sharing energy technology.

Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are serious. The objective is to unseat the United States as the most significant diplomatic and economic power in the world. During a press conference broadcast on Iranian TV Chavez, standing alongside Ahmadinejad, proclaimed that our "important mission is to help the oppressed and revolutionary nations and to expand the anti-imperialist front in the world." The oppressed and revolutionary nations are other, smaller nations united in their distrust of the United States, aka the imperialist front.

They will use existing organizations like the United Nations and the Nonaligned Pact, a group of 118 nations who are, by their very definition, at odds with the United States, to achieve their ends. The vast majority of UN members are against the US policy. During the upcoming General Assembly we will see will see Venezuela and Iran coddle up to those nations and convince them to support their plan.

No, the war on terror has not ended. It has just taken a deeply disturbing turn. Sticks and stones won't break the United States or the West, but these words are sending a loud and clear message.

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Tuesday September 8, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Egypt arrested 13 people and charged them with promoting Islam - promoting Shiite Islam.

Egypt is a Sunni country.

Egyptian law prohibits promoting Shiite Islam because Egypt sees Shiite Islam as a threat to their very existence.

It is legal to be Jewish and to have Jewish schools in Egypt, but it is illegal to teach Shiite Islam.

This is a critical element in understanding the nature of internal Islamic rifts that inform the very fabric of Muslim society.

Shiites and Sunnis are sworn religious enemies. They might both be Islamic, but their differences are so dramatic and their internal wars so vicious that they make external difference look minor. The core of Shiite Islam is Iran and that is intolerable in the eyes of Egypt.

The West labors under an almost complete lack of understanding of Islamic societies and neatly groups everyone under one umbrella - Muslim.

Unless the West opens its eyes to the nuances within Islam, we will never understand the inner workings and critical components that make that world tick.

In Egypt, Shiites are not welcome.

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Monday September 7, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Iranian State TV announced that Iran was developing a new advanced weapons system.
The system is designed to intercept missiles mid-air.
It is an anti-cruise missile system.

This announcement may not be the absolute truth.
Iran has been known to exaggerate when it comes to weapons and advanced technology.
As tensions with the West continue to mount Iran is relying more and more on information and disinformation.
Iran wants to make certain that Israel and the US think twice before striking.

Believe me, these messages are evaluated very carefully to see if there is any real substance to them and if there is, to determine how far along the development and testing process Iran has come.

An anti-cruise missile system coupled with the newest anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems that Iran is getting from Russia means that Iran would be very well insulated from attack.

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Sunday September 6, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt just canceled his diplomatic visit to Israel which had been scheduled for September 11th.

There has been a tremendous amount of diplomatic tension between Sweden and Israel over the past few weeks.

On two separate occasions a Swedish newspaper printed reports that Israeli soldiers harvest Palestinian organs for transplant.

The Swedish government has refused to distance itself from the articles which have never once offered any corroborating evidence.

The paper reported rumors and stories and Swedish leadership is choosing to hide behind the veil of freedom of the press, saying they do not interfere with the press.

Israel responded by saying that they did not ask the Swedish government to interfere. They are asking the Swedes to comment on the ridiculousness of the charges and the unprofessional journalistic approach that never even researched the material.

That is why the Swedish foreign minister canceled his trip to Israel

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Saturday September 5, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

There has been very little speculation across the Arab world about why the United Arab Emirates fired and exiled hundreds of Palestinians.
The story has been barely covered.

To fill the void, Hamas released a statement saying that the UAE expelled the Palestinians because they were considered a security risk.
Hamas responded to their own statement saying that is was a farce and unfair accusation.
And still, the mass exile has received almost no coverage.

The real reason for the exile is difficult to unearth.
The UAE has released no comment.
But we know that the Palestinians working in the UAE were highly trained, well paid, skilled works. If even one worker was thought to be affiliated with or showing affinity for Hamas the likelihood is that they would all be fired and expelled.

The UAE is totally,100%, against Islamic extremism.
The UAE considers Hamas to be an extremist Islamic group that will not be tolerated in their regime.
The internal Arab fight against extremism is real and serious.
I hope the West takes this situation seriously, I hope the White House takes this situation seriously.

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Friday September 4, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A very disturbing report was published in a Kuwaiti newspaper yesterday.

The paper cited foreign intelligence sources in describing an accidental bomb explosion that took place in Lebanon on July 14 and killed 8 people. The paper reported that the explosion took place in a chemical bomb depot.

The paper, al Sayasseh, is generally well connected and has a good record on these issues. According to the intelligence sources Hezbollah refused to permit the Lebanese army into the area and kept the UNIFIL forces far way for 24 hours. The sources assert that this was done to give them time to remove all evidence of the chemicals.

The same source was quoted as having informed several European Union governments that Hezbollah has constructed chemical storage facilities to house weapons that they have imported from Iran, via airlift, to Syria.

If this is true, and it all seems very credible, danger in the region has increased exponentially.
Hezbollah is more volatile than Iran.

Chemical weapons in the hands of Hezbollah are a new catastrophic reality.

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Thursday September 3, 2009

I've Been Thinking:

A report about a Russian ship, en route to Iran and carrying weapons that suddenly disappeared, began circulating several weeks ago.

Originally, it was thought that the ship was hijacked by pirates but no crew and no ship and no cargo was found.
The ship just fell of the radar.
Then the thinking shifted and the theory was that the Israelis captured the ship in a way that only Israeli commandos can do.

Even Time Magazine alluded to this theory.
One Russian leader publicly berated an EU official who blamed Israel.
The condemnation was not diplomatic, it was pragmatic - he was saying keep your mouth shut because you do not know what is really happening.

Well, the mystery is over.
The ship has been found.
Turns out the Russians staged the entire affair as soon as they discovered that weapons were on the ship. They framed Israel and thought the entire episode was over. But an anonymous tip led investigators to find the ship and now all the pieces are coming into position.

That's international diplomacy, Russian style.

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Wednesday September 2, 2009

Column:

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs is telling us that the United States has not yet heard back from Iran regarding the mid-September deadline to negotiate.

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, was quoted on Tuesday on Iran's Arabic TV network al Alam, saying that Iran now has a counter proposal and is ready to negotiate with the West.

I expect that an Iranian response will be forthcoming. I do not expect it to be a very mature or well delineated response.

The clock is ticking.

The Iranians are game players and they derive great pleasure from beating the West at its own games. There is a long history of gaming between the United States and Iran and just because Barack Obama is new to the game, the Iranians are not about to cut him any slack.

Iran plays to win. As the deadline crept closer and Western threats of more significant sanctions against Iran became more realistic, Iran opened its doors to the IAEA (the International Atomic Energy Agency). Feigning nuclear transparency, Iran allowed international nuclear inspectors from the United Nations to inspect their nuclear facilities. To the uninitiated game player, it appeared as if Iran was complying with international demands.

The report composed by the IAEA indicated that Iran was indeed becoming more transparent, more willing to divulge their nuclear plans and capabilities. According to the report Iran has slowed its uranium enrichment program, but that observation raises several red flags because there is also credible information indicating that Iran has investigated the technology necessary to produce nuclear weapons.

The end result is that, by allowing inspectors to enter Iran when the timing was right for Iran and not a minute before, Iran may successfully sway the majority of Western nations into believing that they are, indeed, playing by the rules of the nuclear game. And in the statement that Iran released in response to the IAEA report Iran maintains that now there is proof positive that Iranian intentions are peaceful - just as they have been claiming all along,

There are still two options open to Western nations, two means by which the West can force Iran to not only abandon the pretense of conformity but, and more importantly, to abandon the race to develop nuclear weapons. The first option involves the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. They are the only countries in a position to convincingly threaten Iran, the only countries with the muscle and the backing to carry through on their threats of sanctions. The problem with this otherwise august group is that they are united in indecision.

The unofficial spokesperson for those Security Council member countries most skeptical of US/Western policy regarding Iran is Russia. Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, made it very clear that the way to handle the Iranian nuclear issue is not through military strikes but through diplomatic means.

The problem with this option is that it plays right into Iran's hands. The Iranians have proven themselves extremely adroit at out-maneuvering the United States and the West in diplomatic games.

The best example of this is the way in which Iran has co-opted the IAEA by proposing that the next IAEA meeting they initiate legislation that would condemn any military strike against any nuclear facility in the world. The move is a perfect block against Israel and the United States. It is no secret that Israel feels most threatened by Iran's nuclear potential and has a defensive, pre-emptive strike plan in the works.
Legislation of this kind within the UN's atomic energy body will certainly pass.

In the end, Israel will be condemned for conducting a defensive raid and Iran will waltz away unscathed, uncensored and un-sanctioned for aggressively producing the nuclear material in the first place. And when it happens, the majority of UN member nations will side with Iran against Israel - especially because regardless of the veracity of their findings, Iran has opened its doors to nuclear inspection. Iran needs international support in order to stand up against the United States and in putting forth this legislation Iran has found the way to force the US to back down.

The second option involves taking advantage of one of Iran's few vulnerable points. Iran may be the fifth largest exporter of crude oil in the world, but yet, about half of Iran's gasoline must be imported.

Iran is heavily dependent on refined oil. They import from all over, but most of all, they import locally from Arab countries. And these Arab countries, like the West, view a nuclear Iran as a significant threat. Actually, almost every Arab country in the Middle East considers Iran to be the most significant internal and external threat that they regularly confront.

The Arab countries of the Middle East, Iran's neighbors, must be convinced to shut down the refined oil spigot and to turn off the energy switch. Then, and only then, will the West have any real leverage and any chance at influencing Iran and having the Iranians adjust their nuclear policy to one that the world can live with.

The game is not over and time is running out.

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