Monday March 1, 2010

I'm Predicting:

Iran is beginning to rattle sabers and threaten Europe.
Iran intends to intimidate Western European leaders.
Iran wants to make certain that Europe knows there will be consequences to supporting increased sanctions against them.

What can Iran do?
Iran can turn off the oil supply to Europe.
Iran can even launch a missile strike that targets Europe.

Hussen Salami, deputy head of The Iranian Revolutionary Guard put it plainly: "Iran is standing on 50% of the world's energy and should it so decide, Europe will have to spend the winter in the cold."

Fars, an Iranian national news agency, reported that Salami also said:
"Our missiles are now able to target any spot the conspirators are in."

Iran will probably not carry out their threats.
That doesn't mean that the threats should not be taken seriously.
Europe is starting to quake - and that's just what Iran wants.

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Sunday February 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The United States is beginning to get serious with Syria.
The Syrian Ambassador to the US has been summoned to the State Department to meet with US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman

The Syrian Ambassador will be told - in no uncertain terms - that Syria must stop arming Hezbollah.

This change in tone and demands by the United States comes about as the result of a failed trip to Damascus by Under Secretary of State Frank Burns. When Burns asked Syrian President about arming Hezbollah, Assad said he has no idea what Burns was talking about.

Assad did not even deny it.
Assad said he has no idea.
A flat denial would have been a more serious and more respectful response. Saying he had no idea was a snub, suggesting that Burns was not entitled to either a real lie or the truth.

The message will be sent from the ambassador in DC to the president in Damascus.
But no change will take place on the ground in Syria or in Lebanon.
This is a shot across the bow - it is a warning to Syria.

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Saturday February 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Crude oil closed at $79.66 in the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.
Earlier in the day, it topped the $80 mark.

For the past week oil has been swinging and swinging high. On Friday it hit a benchmark.

There are many reasons why oil prices go up.
Suffice it to say, increased oil prices do not help either the consumer or the West. The people best helped by increased oil prices are enemies of the US. First and second on the list are Iran and Venezuela.

The US wants to apply sanctions on Iran and this surge in oil prices is exactly what they need to give them the extra cash to ride out any of the potential rough spots that might emerge over the next few months.

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Friday February 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a day trip to Damascus.
Ahmadinejad was in Syria getting all his ducks in a row.

Assad and Ahmadinejad agreed on several issues.
At their joint press conference the leaders announced that the United States should pack up and get out of the Middle East.

The Iranian leader also met with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Islamic Jihad leader Ramadan Shallah.
They all want to make certain that should there be another conflict with Israel, a united Islamic front will emerge.

They will fail.
There is a natural inclination for Muslim leaders to proclaim unity, but in reality, history shows us that in crisis, it is every Middle East leader for himself.
Should the time ever come, Iran will not lift a hand to protect either Hamas or Islamic Jihad.

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Thursday February 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has issued a warning.

They told every country that flies to Iran that from now on the water surrounding the area must be referred to as the "Persian Gulf" and not by the more commonly used name the "Arabian Gulf."

They said that every map and every piece of paper, even inside airplanes and used solely for traveler entertainment purposes, must reflect the change.

Countries that do not comply with this demand will lose their landing rights in Iran.

The conflict of "Persian Gulf" versus "Arabian Gulf" is the conflict that caused the cancellation of the Islamic games earlier this year.

Last year National Geographic referred to the water improperly and the magazine, their maps and their atlases were all banished from Iran. After a long discussion and much begging National Geographic is now back in Iran.

Iran is dead serious, they are not playing around.

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Wednesday February 24, 2010

Column:

Mention Dubai and Israel in the same sentence and the first thing that comes to mind is the assassination of a Hamas terrorist leader ... in Dubai ... at the five star luxury Bustan Hotel ... by Israel's Mossad ... allegedly. Unless, of course, you are an avid tennis fan.

While much of the world has focused attention on Israel, Dubai and murder, the annual Dubai Invitational Tennis Championships has been under way.

Last year the Dubai Championships made big news for unceremoniously withdrawing the entry visa of Israeli tennis pro Shahar Peer. Dubai was fined $300,000 and informed that the next year, if Peer qualifies, she must be permitted entry. In protest over Dubai's discriminatory action and in support of a fellow tennis professional, tennis great Andy Roddick boycotted last year's event and Venus Williams, last year's winner, said she would not compete this year unless Shahar Peer competed as well.

Shahar Peer is ranked twenty-two in the world on the women's tour. This year she received her visa and participated in the games making it as far as the semi-finals where she was defeated by Williams. The fact that we, outside of Dubai, did not see or hear coverage of Peer's performance is one thing, but neither did the people in Dubai, neither did the people following the games.

The Israeli tennis star was allowed to participate in the Dubai Championships only against a backdrop of accusations and while shrouded in diplomatic smokescreens. Peer was blanketed by a team of twenty five personal security guards that included former members of the United States presidential secret service detail. Her matches were held on secluded, separate courts. She was confined to her hotel room and allowed out only to go to the matches.

That's how Israeli athletes, are treated in Dubai.

It's not how Israelis, especially Israeli athletes, are treated in the United States.

A horrible hatred of Israeli athletes has been festering in many parts of the world over the past few years. At the Australian Open Shahar Peer was greeted by very loud, very obnoxious, protests. But not in America, not in New York, not at Madison Square Garden.

Omri Casspi is the first Israeli in the NBA, playing for the Sacramento Chiefs. During his premier game at Madison Square Garden against the very popular NY Knicks, Casspi, # 18, was cheered and treated like a regular hometown player. The Garden can be daunting for any player, but the Israeli was welcomed with open arms. It didn't hurt that he was playing on Jewish Heritage Night, but according to a local Sacramento paper, even members of the Arab community in Sacramento have taken a liking to the new player on their team.

Why was Shahar Peer jeered and Omri Casspi cheered? It's not the difference between tennis and basketball, it's the difference between the United States of America and the rest of the world. The United States views the Middle East and the Palestinian/Israeli conflict very differently than does the rest of the world. In the United States, there are almost no traces of anti-Semitism, the same cannot be said for the rest of the world.

The United States is not completely free of prejudice, pre-disposition and venom. Ironically, one of the only places where Jews and Israelis are regularly taunted in the United States today is on college campuses. In colleges, there is a no-holds-barred attitude and faculty, as well as students, express attitudes more closely resembling Western European political sentiments than those that reflect mainstream US perspectives. The same age demographic that protests against Israelis on campus allows sporting events to be their great equalizer.

Today it happened in Dubai, tomorrow it will happen somewhere else. As long as there are people willing to take a stand, big name people like Andy Roddick and Venus Williams and boisterous people like New York basketball fans - there is still a chance.

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Tuesday February 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Finally, after way too long, the bones of an Egyptian nobleman have been returned to their rightful owner.

In 2008 Miami Airport officials confiscated a sarcophagus flying from Madrid to Spain. The box was from the 21st Egyptian Dynasty dating from 975-1010 BCE. It had been out on display and when it returned to the US, the importer did not have proper papers.

Egypt sued to get it returned and they won.

Until the 1950's and the rise of the modern Middle East, natural treasures and local historical prizes were looted by archeologists, grave robbers and traders. And then they were often sold to big name museums and serious collectors.

Many Middle Eastern states still have feelings of anger toward the colonial powers of the West. Many national treasures of the Middle East are still on display in museums in Western capitals around the world. These treasures were often stolen right out of dig sites leaving gaping holes in situ and then brought to London and Paris.

In this case, a historic wrong has been righted.

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Monday February 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Curiosity about the inner workings of the Mossad has ratcheted up ever since the assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud Mabhouh.

The Mossad is not an assassination machine, the Mossad is an information gathering organization.
The Mossad is very compartmentalized. Units that are involved in dangerous field operations are the most separate and most compartmentalized of all.

For example: the Kidon Unit is part of the Ceasaria Unit.
The Ceasaria Unit is actually a Mossad within the Mossad. We do not know half of the activities that the Kidon Unit is involved in, but assassinations are not the foundation of the unit.

The Caesaria Unit is like a special projects organization.
Most Caesaria Unit activities involve field intelligence, not just gathering intel but also interaction and engagement. The work is highly pressured - not much cloak and dagger but a lot of acting and deception.

How is information gathered?
Posing as a journalist or lobbyist or traveling businessperson and hanging out in hotel bars, hot cafes and hot tubs is one very useful tool for gathering information and opening up channels of communication.

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Sunday February 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Youkiya Amano of Japan is the new head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The IAEA is the group charged with inspecting nuclear facilities around the world to make certain that countries work within international nuclear guidelines.

Amano just failed at trying to convince Syria to permit the IAEA unfettered inspection access. Inspecting Syrian facilities is especially important because, according to a newly publicized IAEA report, the facility Israel attacked in September 2007 had traces of nuclear remains

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said absolutely no to the IAEA. "We are committed to the non-proliferation agreement between the agency and Syria and we allow inspectors to come according to this agreement." In other words, Syria agrees to pre-scheduled inspections, but not to unannounced, spot inspections.

Amano wants Syria to join the new protocols which permit any and all inspections.
Syria is not interested and Moallem will not budge on this issue. "We will not allow anything beyond the agreement because Syria does not have a military nuclear program. Syria is not obliged to open its other sites to inspectors."

This situation is not good.
Syria and the IAEA are gearing for a showdown.

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Saturday February 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, also known as the Supreme Leader of Iran, made an announcement.

He said that the West does not understand what Iran is doing.
He said that Iran is not enriching uranium for weapons.
He said that the West does not even realize that for Iran, "it is forbidden to use that kind of weapon."

This is not the first time the Grand Ayatollah has made a pronouncement saying that Islamic law prohibits nuclear weapons.
The problem is that Islamic law also prohibits the murder of innocent people.

Everyone views their own world through their own special spectrum.
Iran seems to view nuclear weapons differently than we in the West view them.
Iran is masterful at clouding the issue and subverting blame - masterful.

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Friday February 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Amir Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League, added his voice and the voice of the entire Arab League to the voices of Iran and Syria and the rest of the chorus of countries saying they will not sit still if Israel attacks Lebanon.

It sounds good, but in reality, it is simply a gesture - political, rhetoric, machismo.

The Arab League has no army and no power to control the members of the League.
The Iranians are clear about their point of view, they have a serious stake in Southern Lebanon but their purpose in building up Southern Lebanon has always been to create a proxy so that they do not have to get personally involved.

The Syrians view Lebanon as their sovereign territory. They sew seeds of disorder to weaken the central Lebanese government. They want disorder in Lebanon. And they do it all from a distance.

These are real attempts to create unity - even though these statements are only meant for public consumption.

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THE DUBAI ASSASSINATION: A MODERN DAY WHODUNIT
Thursday February 18, 2010

Column:

Israel has not said an official word about the assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud al Mabhouh. The Arab press is doing the talking for them.

In more than one oped, in more than one Arabic language newspaper, Israel has been praised and applauded for the professional and efficient manner in which Mabhouh was assassinated in his hotel room in Dubai. The authors spoke with respect of the Israeli team and the way in which the team dealt with Israel's enemy far away from home. They acknowledged the sophisticated intelligence gathering techniques necessary to pull off the operation and the decision to put this particular assassination into operation.

Does Israel deserve that praise? We can't be sure. But as far as assassinations go, these assassins, whoever they really are and wherever they are now, are certainly worthy of note for carrying out an almost flawless operation. We've all read the books and seen the movies, it is not easy to carry out a mission as sensitive and as complicated as the mission they undertook and successfully completed.

It is Israeli policy not to comment on assassinations, targets, hits. The Israelis say nothing, which leads everyone else to speculate. It is possible that the operation was executed by Israelis. It is also possible Israel commissioned an outside team to execute the operation. Or perhaps Israel provided details to another agency, or even country, to perpetrate this strike against Hamas.

Israel did not stand alone in preferring a dead Mabhouh to a live, functioning, terrorizing Mabhouh. Other countries and other governments, including Arab countries, breathed a collective sigh of relief upon hearing of the death. And despite the news reports, none of these governments is asking too many questions.

From the picture that is emerging, it seems clear that Mahmoud al Mabhouh was interrogated and that during that interrogation he gave up a lot of important, even crucial, information. The information that was gleaned during this operation is more important than the assassination itself - which is now being portrayed as either an act of revenge or of justice delayed.

According to Lt. General Dahi Tamim, Chief of Police in Dubai, twelve people participated in the operation, ten men and two women, and they all entered and left Dubai within nineteen hours. Security footage at the airport and the hotel attests to the fact that the assassins were all professionals. They arrived on separate planes, checked into different hotels and changed their appearances wearing floppy hats and wigs, looking like tourists or businessmen and they entered Dubai on passports from several friendly European countries, even one from the United States.

We are now learning that most of the names used on the forged passports are the names of real people and the countries of origins on the passports are the countries from which these people hail - and that most now live in Israel. Dubai is threatening to issue arrest warrants but that would be futile and Interpol will not issue a warrant for a ghost. There is no tracing the faces and the faces do not match the names. The assassination team has disappeared.

The Arab world feels the public need to show that they are doing something to catch the bad guys, so two Palestinians were arrested in Jordan and extradited to Dubai. According to the Police Chief Tamim the men were involved in the operation and after their interrogation, many more details will emerge.

If these Palestinians were involved, they were probably only procurers, the people who provided weapons or materials. They probably knew nothing about the target, the plan or, for that matter, the team. The person dealing with these Palestinians would be so far removed from the team of eleven that there is no way to connect them. Operations like this are compartmentalized - you are told what you need to know and only what you need to know, not as television action dramas would have us believe, the whereabouts of others or their schedules, certainly not their names.

If the Israelis really are the perpetrators of this assassination, Mabhouh was probably given a truth serum and then executed with a drug that mimics a heart attack. Both drugs are hard to detect and the longer it takes to discover and autopsy the body, the harder and harder it becomes to find traces. He was probably not tortured, that takes too long and makes too much noise and would alert authorities in an luxury hotel.

We may never know the details. But Hamas knows that their operation has been compromised, that one of their best is now dead. That's enough.

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Wednesday February 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not to be underestimated.
He has keen insight into the Middle East but his intelligence on Israel is open to question.

In a recent statement Ahmadinejad declared:
"According to information we have they (Israel) are seeking to start a war next spring or summer, although their decision is not final yet."

Ahmadinejad did not mention more specifics.
He did not say against whom Israel would go to war, but he did have very specific reasons for making this information public.

Ahmadinejad wants regional leaders and local citizens to be on edge.
He knows that the threat of war will be a galvanizing force in the region, that it will unite all Arab countries against Israel.

Ahmadinejad is probably talking about Israel going to war against Hezbollah, Syria or Iran, but his intelligence is totally off base.
Ahmadinejad will do whatever he can to propel his own agenda forward with other countries in the region.

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Tuesday February 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has been in Israel since Sunday.

Mullen is making the rounds of everyone who is anyone in Israel. He has met with the defense minister, the prime minister, and of course, Gabi Ashkenazi, Israeli Chief of Staff.

They are talking about several ideas - but there is only one topic that is important to both sides, Iran.
The United States wants to make certain that Israel will not act without getting their OK. Mullen made it very clear that the US will do everything to defend Israel.
Mullen also made it clear that but Israel cannot act alone.

The problem with the entire US/Israel exchange is that the United States and Israel are looking at the Iranian problem from very different perspectives.
The United States is thinking in terms of a defensive stand which does not allow for a preemptive strike. For Israel it is all about the offensive.

Without a preemptive strike Iran has a free hand.
More importantly, Iran has the upper hand.

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Monday February 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon is claiming that they chased four Israeli jets out of their airspace yesterday by shooting anti aircraft weapons at them.
Israel has not commented on either the flights or the shooting.

These flyovers have irked Lebanon for years.
The rhetoric and the frustration are reaching new levels.

Israel has a long history of flying over southern Lebanon.
They use the air space for maneuvers and for reconnaissance.
Israel needs to constantly monitor what happens in Southern Lebanon.
Southern Lebanon is where Hezbollah stores arms and trains for attacks against Israel.

Tensions over Lebanon will continue to climb until the rhetoric calms down.

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Sunday February 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Baroness Jenny Tonge, a member of the British House of Lords in England from the Liberal Party, has been forced to step down as Health Spokesperson for her party.

This past week Tonge was quoted in the Jewish Chronicle urging Israeli authorities to investigate the charge that while in Haiti, Israeli doctors harvested organs at their mobile surgical hospital.

Jenny Tonge should be ashamed.
When a Baroness raises this kind of myth publicly she is acting as the spokesperson for anti-Semites, nor for her party.
I commend Liberal Party leadership for removing Tonge from her position.

There is no truth to the canard.
It is an outright lie.
It is a modern-day blood libel.

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Saturday February 13, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Somali pirates released a ship and its hostages after the government of Taiwan paid the ransom.
The men were released on Thursday, the ship was seized ten months ago.

The ship was a tuna fishing boat with a crew of thirty aboard.
In the course of captivity, three crew members died.

The story of Somali pirates has died down - but there are still seven ships and about 160 crew members still held captive.

The International Task Force has had some small impact. Last week, for example, a team of Danish commandos stormed and freed a ship.

But they are still far from freeing ships and captives and ridding the world of piracy.

We need a serious response to the problem of piracy.

Piracy has transported the shipping industry back to the 18th century where lawless thieves on the open seas bring Western civilizations to their knees.

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Friday February 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

To give you a sense of how tense the situation is in Iran, just look at who was detained yesterday when she arrived in Teheran for a celebration rally marking the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

The granddaughter of the Ayatollah Khomeini, that's who.
The Ayatollah Khomeini was the founder of the Revolution and his granddaughter was detained along with her husband who also happens to be the brother of the former president of Iran, the Ayatollah Mohammed Khatami.

These are people beyond reproach and with impeccable Iranian pedigrees.
But they are also considered dangerous by today's regime because any action or comments from them could sway many undecided people in Iran away from the current leadership and into the waiting arms of the reformers.

No one is safe in Iran.
Silence speaks as loudly as do actions and involvement.
In Iran there is no such thing as standing safely on the sidelines.

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Thursday February 11, 2010

Column:

Iranian leadership is afraid of freedom. Freedom of speech petrifies them. And what scares them most of all is the freedom to access information and news.

In other words, the boogey man in the closet of Iranian leadership is the world wide web.

Every citizen of Iran has the ability to both receive and deliver information about anything and everything to anyone in the world -just like you and me. Because of the internet, Iranians can exchange recipes, talk about music and discuss Islam and the Koran and what makes a better Muslim and even, what Allah has commanded them to do. And they can chat about sex.

And that is why Iran is starting its own internet system. It is why Iran has begun blocking Google.

Thanks to Google, Iranian reformers have effectively communicated over the past year. They text message and they email. And they have also mastered the use of other, non-Google communication tools like Twitter. They do it all behind the back of Iran's authoritarian, obsessive, religious leadership.

Now Iranian leadership feels the need to put a stop to internet freedom. They are made uncomfortable by the comfort level Iranians have attained through their Google gmail accounts. They have blocked those accounts and they have admitted to blocking them. Surprisingly, Yahoo has not been hit by Iranian cyber blockades, at least, not yet hit.

Iranian youth, like their comrades the world over, have become very adroit at retrieving information and using gmail. In Iran, by necessity, the younger generation has also become proficient at bypassing the lulls and service problems that Iranian religious leadership has tried to impose. Iranians youth will log on to a protected internet system and access their internet from there, or they will bounce and forward their gmail email to the new, "friendly" internet system.

Iran is a highly educated and technical society. Technology and science are Iran's lifeline. Scientists working for the government on internet issues, however, have not been granted the kinds of budgets needed to clamp down on the hackers and techno-geeks and marauders parading across Iranian cybersphere. Iranian reformers have better skills and better help from abroad than do government scientists. The techno-geeks at Google and Yahoo and hackers around the cyber world are lending a hand to try to aid Iran's reformers take down the Iranian establishment.

As a rule, major internet cyber uber mentschen are apolitical personalities. They are live and let live about almost every issue - except for freedom of speech, except for Iran's decision to shut them down. For them, freedom of speech is more than a religion right, it is the holy grail. And they will not stop until they have crippled the oppressive Iranian regime.

The cyber war has begun.

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Wednesday February 10, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The State Department released Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's schedule yesterday and on the agenda is the Middle East.

The secretary of state will be spending Saturday through Tuesday in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
This is Clinton's first trip to Qatar as the top US diplomat and she will be talking about two major topics.
The first topic she will address is Iran.
The second topic is jump starting the Israel/Palestinian dialogue.

Clinton will be addressing the US - Islamic World Forum and she will deal with these two topics in both public and behind closed doors.

The United States needs to apply pressure on Iran.
The Forum is the perfect place to recruit regional leaders to join forces with the West and help isolate Iran.
This trip by the secretary of state could turn out to be a very effective diplomatic maneuver on the part of the United States.

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Tuesday February 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

An al Qaeda website broadcast an audio recording of Said a Shaheri, the deputy head of al Qaeda in Yemen.
What makes this broadcast newsworthy is the fact that Said a Shaheri was supposed to have been one of 30 leaders killed last month in a Yemeni Air Force raid that strafed their camp.

In the broadcast Shaheri spoke of his true objective and tried to persuade recruits to join his mission.
He said:
"The Christians, the Jews, and the treacherous apostate rulers have pounced on you ... you have no other way out from this plight other than to wage jihad,"

He continued:
"We advise you, our people in the Peninsula, to prepare and carry your weapons and to defend your religion and yourselves and to join your mujahideen brothers."

Said a Shaheri is one of those notorious prisoners released from US custody in Guantanimo Bay, Cuba who has re-emerged as a significant al Qaeda leader.
Upon his return to Yemen Shaheri assumed his previous role and he continues to evade the West.

It is becoming more and more apparent that, best intentions aside, we are the ones who continue to facilitate the growth and strengthening of al Qaeda.

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Monday February 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday CNN broadcast an interview with King Abdullah of Jordan. The Monarch was eloquent as he described the ticking time bomb that is the Middle East.

King Abdullah minced no words.
He said point blank that President Obama needs to dedicate time to change the situation on the ground between Palestinian and Israelis.

The King exaggerated slightly when he said that an opportunity for peace would be lost if not accomplished in the next thirty days. But he was correct in describing correctly the disappointment that is felt throughout the Arab and Muslim world that President Obama has not made the Middle East a top priority.

The King asserted that the possibility for a two-state solution is slipping away. If that opportunity slips away, so will the possibility for normalizing relations between Palestinians and Israelis.

The King implored President Obama to take action now.

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Sunday January 7, 2010

Ive Been Thinking:

It is the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
Iran has planned a ten day celebration.

The excitement had been limited to the launching of rockets and the unveiling of satellites.
Now, according to Iranian radio, the Iranians are now adding two new missiles to their arsenal.
The first is an anti-helicopter missile.
The second is an anti-armor, anti-tank weapon.

There is an expression: work for peace and prepare for war.
We should assume that Iran is preparing for war and not for peace.
Presenting the new weapons is one of the ways Iran engages in a game of intimidation. The Iranians are demonstrating that they have capabilities and weaponry that will exact a toll on any attacking forces.

Iran has a larger plan.
They are allowing us one glimpse at a time.

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Saturday February 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Irish Herald reported yesterday that the assassins who killed Hamas operative Mohamed Mabouh in his hotel room in Dubai were traveling on Irish passports.
The report could not be confirmed from through any other source.

On more than one occasion the Dubai chief of police has said that the killers entered and left on European Union passports.

Most people are still pointing their fingers at Israel.
The use of Irish passports does not give us any clues as to the identity of the assassins. Irish passports issued several years ago are still valid even though they do not contain holograms and RFID chips the way newer passports do. Old passports work perfectly in the hands of any operatives or other unsavory characters like drug traffickers and spies.

RFID stands for Radio Frequency Identification chips which use a specific frequency to make certain that they are not counterfeit.
Many border patrols have no idea what an RFID is, so the old Irish passport is still in use.

We may have new information, but it is not yet useful information.
There are many more pieces to this puzzle.

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Friday February 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Russian press is reporting that Moscow will be hosting a very special guest next week.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal will be the honored guest of the Kremlin.

Russia is making a play for influence in the Middle East.
It is not enough for the Russians to simply make statements - they need to make promises and they need to show that they can be a guiding force. That means that they must demonstrate support in the form of humanitarian assistance.

Russia thinks they know how to play the game.
They want to out - maneuver the United States in the region and they are hoping to buy their influence with Hamas. What the Russians do not realize is that Hamas is not for sale. They will take the money and run.

There is no counter balance to Hamas.
Nothing can and nothing will control Hamas - not Iran and not Russia.
Hamas is accountable only to Hamas.
Nothing else matters.

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Thursday February 4, 2010

Column:

The Iranians took a rat, a turtle, a few worms and put them in a rocket ship and launched it into space. It sounds like the opening line of a good joke, but this is nothing to laugh about.

The Iranians really did put a rat, a turtle and worms into a rocket ship and sent it off into space. And with that launch the Iranians have catapulted not only a rocket into space, but Iran itself to almost the very head of the class of global space travel. The funny part was watching the launch and hearing the countdown and seeing nothing happen. The count down was begun again and this time the rocket took off - at the count of five.

The rocket is a Kovahshgar 3, also called an Explorer 3. It is Iran's third generation of space satellite rockets. What makes this rocket significantly different from other Iranian space ships is that the Kovahshgar 3 is a two-stage rocket system. This machine will travel 320 km into space.

Once a country achieves the ability to develop multi-stage rockets there is no limit to the distances their rockets will travel and the tasks their rockets will be able to perform. In a two-stage rocket the first, or spent, rocket detaches itself after lift off allowing the second, or next stage, rocket to launch again as a lighter space ship with more energy.

A long term objective of Iran's space program has been to move to any orbit that requires them to launch to 1000 km into space. Now that they have achieved the status of staged rockets, reaching their objective is only a matter of time. The satellites that Iran launches from here on will allow them the ability to monitor everything that happens in every corner of the entire globe. Everything.

Just prior to this launch Iran unveiled three new satellites called the Simorgh, or Phoenix. The unveiling and launch were televised on Iranian national TV and promoted as a part of Iran's anniversary celebration commemorating the Islamic Revolution. At the ceremony, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke at length about the importance of these launches and these satellites. The president spoke about study and technology and the information that will be gleaned from this experiment of sending living organisms into space. The rat, the turtle and the worms will, he said, provide important information for scientists to analyze.

More frightening than the two-stage rocket, more frightening than the launch, is the knowledge that this despotic, demonic, extremist regime is in possession of this technology. The technology that launched the Kovahshgar 3 is the same technology that will allow Iran to provide a delivery system for non-conventional weapons.

This public launching in Iran is a watershed. While the West and the IAEA were running around trying to determine Iran's nuclear capability, Iran was legally building satellite rockets that easily convert to ballistic delivery armaments.

This launch demonstrates how advanced science and technology are in Iran, how fast they have developed over the past few months. It shows how deaf and blind the world has been to the significance of Iranian threats, how laissez faire the West has been in monitoring the aerospace industry in Iran, one of the most important elements of a nuclear delivery system.

And it shows how proud the Iranians are of their accomplishments - so proud that the Iranian government itself released a video of the launch on You Tube. Iran knows how to play the West - literally and figuratively.

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Wednesday February 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Dennis Blair, the administration's point man on terror, testified before the Senate Committee on Security yesterday.

He said that the Taliban are growing in strength.
He said the Taliban are stronger than they were in 2006.
This is an understatement.

The Taliban are growing in numbers, in weapons and in influence.
Everyone is upset, but almost no one is doing anything to stop it.

Yesterday, the Saudis called upon the Taliban to exile Osama bin Laden.
They used Muslim logic and tried to prevail on the Taliban to reject bin Laden.
Obviously, their plan did not work.

At least the Saudis had an idea and ran with it, even if it was senseless.

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February 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has executed two men for their activities in the aftermath of the June 12 elections.
The men were publicly hanged.
The men were mid level organizers for the opposition.

Several things should be clear:
There is no democracy in Iran.
Those who believe they can bring democracy to Iran will pay with their lives and souls. The purpose of public hangings in Iran is to instill fear in those who might question the power of the system.

The point was made very clearly in Friday's sermon which was broadcast in Teheran.

The conservative cleric Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati delivering the sermon asked for more executions. He wondered why there were not more immediately after the election. He described the need to use a strong hand against the protesters. He said that the protestors may not have understood the proper message because Iranian leadership was not tough enough with them. He said: "If you show weakness now the future will be worse."

Nothing has changed in Iran.

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