Wednesday September 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Tonight the ceremony begins.
Tonight the White House hosts Netanyahu, Abbas, Abdullah and Mubarak.

Tonight all sit together for a state dinner. Tonight the leaders of the United States, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority will break bread. Conspicuously absent from this event is Hamas - but their presence has already, sadly, tragically, been felt. The pomp and circumstance of the event will be more fitting for the end of the process than for the beginning.

The irony is that, while very few people appreciate this fact, this entire event could easily have taken place 20 months ago when Obama first took office. It was President Obama's insistence that forced the hand of the Palestinians and brought about the response of the Israelis.

In January 2009 talks between the Israelis and Palestinians were ongoing. What a waste of time, energy, productivity and momentum.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Tuesday August 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has been in a tumult these last few days.

Posters appeared throughout the country abdicating for Gamal Mubarak, son of Hosni Mubarak, to be the next president of Egypt.

Why is this at all interesting? Primarily because there has been no discussion, either public or private, about succession. And those who have rejected the ideas of political succession have been arrested or silenced.

Now a serious dissident, Saad Eddin Ibrahim, has signed a petition for Mubarak. Ibrahim claims that he signed in order to support a real election not to endorse the candidate/son.

Do not expect a real debate - but the young Mubarak does have many things going for him as the successor. Then again, he also has many negative traits.

If Mubarak junior is to become the next president of Egypt it will happen because he has been firmly placed in position by his father, so firmly placed that there can be no doubts about his credentials.

This will not be an easy political task. Then again, Mubarak the father has never shied away from difficult tasks.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Monday August 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Seldom do we get a really good first hand indicator of a developing country's potential.

Economists crunch numbers and insert variables. Analysts read the prevailing winds. Investors translate tones and offer a prognosis. But it is all one step removed.

So I was relieved to actually hear Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani explain his goals and give a timetable.

Iraq is producing about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day.
They are permitted 4 million per day by agreement with OPEC.
Shahristani said that he expects Iraq to meet OPEC totals within 2 years.

Iraqis are taking their production seriously. They are developing and expanding their capabilities. And now we have a serious timeline to attach to their objectives.

It seems doable.
Given the expansion, it seems sustainable.
Given Iraq's current orientations and direction we should take Shahristani at his word.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Sunday August 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Libyan leader Muammar Ghadaffi is now in Rome, his fourth visit to Italy in a year.

Ostensibly, the purpose of this visit is the first anniversary of the reparations agreement between the two countries. The Italian government has agreed to pay Libya $9 billion because of the Italian occupation of Libya from 1911-1943.

But nothing Ghadaffi does is without serious symbolic value.

The Libyan leader has pitched his famous Bedouin tent. He has brought along 30 thoroughbred Berber horses and 40 body guards.

During a previous trip to Italy, in November of 2009, Ghadaffi hosted a lavish party for between 200 to 500 beautiful Italian women - all of whom were paid to attend. They were models and hostess and were told wear dresses that came to the knee. At the party Ghadaffi delivered a long lecture on the attributes of Islam and asked his guests to convert.

I can't wait to see what Ghadaffi has planned this time around.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Saturday August 28, 2010

Column

The attitude adopted by Turkey towards Israel should never have surprised the security, political or foreign policy communities. Pay attention and you know what to expect.

The Turks are fed up and they are reacting instinctively by lashing out. Many people lay the blame for this new attitude and behavior on the Islamic orientation of today's political leadership in Turkey. That it true, but it is only part of the answer. Many blame the steady increase of Islamic political parties leading right up to the ruling party in Turkey. Again, true, but only a partial answer.

Turkey has been misunderstood for decades. Because of the natural western bias of Israel and the United States, it was assumed that Turkey was moving towards the West. It was assumed that Turkey was a Western-oriented state.

That assumption is incorrect. Turkey is a split state - and only a very small part, the part the West has concentrated on, is European. The remainder of Turkey, the vast majority of Turkey, is a part of Asia and of the Middle East.

At one point Turkey did display a serious desire to move toward the West, and while that desire was embraced by the Western world, it was only a blip on the social conscience of Turkey. To understand the stance the Turks have now taken, one must view this split state in the context of the overwhelming anti-Western sentiment that has always permeated Turkey and has slowly peeked out and reared its head over the past few years.

Turkey refused to allow the United States and other Western allies to headquarter on their turf during the second Gulf War. That was the first sign. It should have become clear and apparent that Turkey was more concerned about their internal, local and regional tensions as they were about their international issues. Preventing the United States Air Force from flying out of Turkey did not hinder the war effort, but it did bolster Turkey's standing in the Muslim world.

In January of 2009, at World Economic Forum in Davos, the leader and mouthpiece of Turkey, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, lambasted Israel's President Shimon Peres about Operation Caste Lead. This, too, was a very clear foreshadowing of things to come.

Because Western leadership was either blind to these glaring messages or perhaps, too hopeful to call them on the carpet, Turkish leadership felt confident that they would be able to successfully walk the tightrope - open their markets, sell their goods and reap the benefits of the Western economic group that would catapult them into a growth market and even, into a major player in the region.

And then, Turkey's hopes were dashed. For years Turkey dreamed and waited to join the European Union. But here was no possible way Turkey would be admitted as a full member of the EU - Greece would never hear of it. It is in that vein that Prime Minister Netanyahu visits Greece, Turkey's arch enemy, to cultivate the Greeks now that the Turks have displayed their true leanings.

Turkey needed new friends and new markets. Iran and Syria were the ideal partners.

So at this point Turkish leadership is less likely to respond as quickly or jump as high when the US calls. Tensions with the West are high. While the military is still a very important stabilizing feature of Turkish national power, it is not the army that makes public statements. The US and Israel are despised on the streets of Turkey today. The flotilla incident further strengthened resentment towards the West. In Turkey, Israel is the metaphor for the West.

Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, understood the need to break away from the shackles of the Middle East. He knew that the tiny parcel of European land that bridges Europe and Asia in Turkey was a springboard into a new modern world. That is why Ataturk recreated the Turkish language and dropped Arabic lettering, recasting it with English letters.

Ataturk was a political prophet. He pounded Turkey into the modern world and kept the Muslim religious issues at bay. Everyone knew those tensions would always remain. The question was only how long they could be controlled and sublimated.

We have the answer. Today's leadership in Turkey uses anti-Western feelings as a fulcrum to motivate domestic politics and to add serious international swagger. Turkey has given up the charade, Turkey is no longer playing another game. In many ways they have switched sides.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Friday August 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Lebanon is in a bind.
# 1: Iran has offered to arm Lebanon.
# 2: The United States is calling into question the $100 million a year they give to Lebanon.
# 3: Iran stepped right up and said they will fill the gap.

This is very important.

Iran is already the supporter and arms provider for Hezbollah. If the Iranians now become the patron of the Lebanese army that means that they will, literally, be arming both sides of an internal struggle.

Lebanon does not want to join with Iran but there may be no other choice. The Lebanese know that all Iranian aid comes with multiple strings attached.

One of those strings may be that the Lebanese become proxy warriors against Israel on Iran's behalf. And that could mean the end of Lebanon.

Lebanon really needs the aid and Lebanon really needs the weapons to hold their own against Hezbollah.
Lebanon is faced with a serious dilemma.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Thursday August 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian leadership is preparing for direct talks with Israel. The United States has made it very clear that these talks must adhere to serious conformity with existing agreements.

So over the past few days the PA has been arresting Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in the West Bank. This might appear to be a win win situation, but the arrests can have serious backlash.

It is win win because to the outside world it now looks like the PA is taking security seriously and is designating Hamas and Islamic Jihad as terror groups working to undermine them. But it might be a lose lose because these arrests can easily come back to haunt Abbas.

Abbas is already in a very precarious political situation. The public believes that Abbas is too compliant, that he too often does what he is told, that the US and Israel pull his strings.

Abbas is a survivor.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Wednesday August 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ever since it became a modern state, Lebanon has been like a powder keg ready to explode.

Divisions in Lebanon run deep. Civil wars are commonplace. Capital city Beirut is extremely volatile - Shiites and Sunnis kill one another with abandon.

When Lebanon is quiet it is an eerie quiet. It means that tensions are there, covered over, hiding beneath the surface.

Yesterday there was a clash between Shiites and Sunnis in a mixed neighborhood in Beirut. This was no small shoot. At least three people were killed and many more were wounded. Machine guns and RPGs were the weapons used.

RPG stands for rocket propelled grenade. RPGs are the weapons Hezbollah uses to shoot tanks. This is serious destructive fire power.

This is a serious situation.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Tuesday August 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Tourism is up in Syria this year. The increase is 55% over last year at this time. That means 5.1 million tourists have visited Syria so far in 2010. Truly, an unbelievable number.

About 1 million of the tourists are themselves Syrians living abroad. About 3 million are Arabs from other countries. The rest are true foreigners, people from other countries.

An increase of such huge dimensions has to be attributed to something. The best I can guess is-the new attitude of the world-at-large towards Syria resulting from Syria's new openness to the West.

Syria's decision to entertain overtures from the West has resulted in tourism that has surged into the millions. More than people, the Syrians say that $5 billion US dollars in revenue has been raised.

Now for the billion dollar question: Will this improved economic tool further influence Syria's foreign policy?

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Monday August 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is in victory mode.
The Iranians continue to gloat, proclaiming that they have trounced the United States and the West.

Yesterday, in response to Israel's frustration over the opening of the new Iranian nuclear reactor in Busher, Ahmadinejad declared that Israel is too weak to attack Iran.

He continued his rhetoric by declaring that the Iranians do not fear a US attack, either. He said that the US could not even defeat the tiny Iraqi army or put down the present insurgency in Iraq. If they can't even handle Iraq, how could they defeat the mighty Iranian military, he rhetorically asked.

This is a new stage in Ahmadinejad's bluster. He is milking the opening of the nuclear plant at Busher for all he can. He is trying to mesmerize the Muslim world by illustrating for them how both Israel and the United States are not to be feared.

Ultimately Iran's political leader is saying: Do not be intimidated by these heathens. They are weak, we are strong. Iran will lead and defend all the Muslim world.

He's not just mouthing the words. Ahmadinejad means what he says.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Sunday August 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran opened the Busher nuclear power plant yesterday. Nuclear reactors are being filled as you read this.

The opening of this nuclear power plant was happen simply and easily on the part of Iran because the US proclaimed to the world - and particularly to Israel, that the Busher plant was a nuclear power plant. Russia confirmed this story because they constructed the plant.

Israel is shocked and stunned by naivete of the United States and Russia.

Iran is jubilant. The news was celebrated on TV and radio broadcasts. The Iranians are calling it a monstrous victory over the West. Despite Western pressure they were able to fulfill their objectives and open a nuclear power facility.

How could the US and Russia be so easily played?

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Saturday August 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday a ship is set to depart from Lebanon stockpiled with aid for Gaza. The ship is called the Mariam, the Arabic name for Mary mother of Jesus.

The Mariam is supposed to have only Christian women aboard. The intention of this voyage is to break the Israeli blockade. Really, it is a serious propaganda and public relations ploy. The hope is that the Christian angle will call a lot of attention to this mission.
Cyprus has already declared that the ship is not welcome. They Cypriots said that if the ship does set sail they will arrest the passengers and send them back to Lebanon. Cyprus understands exactly what is happening.

The government of Lebanon was asked to stop this ship but as of now, has remained silent. Unlike the Turks, the Lebanese government has not supported, condemned or prevented the ship from departing. This is like walking a thin tightrope.

Israel sees this voyage by the Mariam as a provocation and has warned that it will respond in kind. Tensions are rising.
We must monitor this situation carefully - it clearly has the potential to explode.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Friday August 20, 2010

Column:

The burning question in European democracies is this: Is it appropriate for a European democracy to prohibit the wearing of the burqa, the Islamic headdress worn by women that covers almost their entire face (most leave slits for the eyes, some cover the eyes with a mesh veil). Debates over the wearing, or non-wearing, of the burqa are spreading like wild fire throughout the continent.

More important than the passion these debates generate is the context in which they are held. The first country to pass a law forbidding the burqa was Belgium. France recently passed its own law. In a poll conducted in England asking 2,000 people what they thought about passing a similar law, 67% were in favor. The Spanish Parliament took up and then rejected the debate.

Surprising as it may seem, the reason for banning the burqa is not religious. This is not a case of religious discrimination. It is, on the contrary, a call for freedom. The mandate to cover a woman's face in public flies in the face of the women's movement. It takes away a woman's freedom and equality. It is also - and importantly, a call based on issues of safety and security. It is impossible to identify someone whose face is covered - it is a security risk.

Democracies do not come without limits. Regardless of one's belief, one person does not have the freedom to subjugate another. That is the thesis behind the enactment of laws forbidding the burqa in European countries.

Theocracies and non-Western democracies have even more limits. And yet, there are also Muslim countries that have outlawed the burqa. Turkey and Egypt are two examples. Both back up their ban with cogent historical and religious evidence that the burqa is a pagan influence on Islam. More than that, they warn that it is the Taliban who brought the burqa back into popular Islamic culture and for that reason alone the wearing of the burqa should be rejected by mainstream Islam.

These arguments are right, and they are wrong.
The term burqa means to patch or sew. It is used to refer to the headdress worn by women, but it is an improper, inaccurate use of the word. Niqab is the best term for what we call the burqa. In Arabic, niqab translates to mask.

Another word used in Islamic culture that denotes a head covering is hijab, which means curtain. Hijab also refers to the Islamic concept of modesty and privacy, giving it a far deeper theological meaning than burqa. It refers to the separation between the world of man and the heavenly world.

The Koran makes reference to the headscarf using the term khimar, which today, is translated as a body cover. There is a long history of body covering and head covering in Islam. Most of those traditions are a response to and a rejection of pagan tribes and tradition in Arabia.

A rose is a rose is a rose. A burqa is a niqab, is a hijab. And the head covering is being outlawed in more and more European countries. There is sure to be a backlash. The first people to suffer the results of this backlash will not be the European parliamentarians and countries, it will not be Islamic leaders.

It is the women who will suffer. Women stuck between their need to fulfill their religious doctrine and living in a modern European state. Figuratively, maybe even literally, it is the women who will be the ones to burn.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Thursday August 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

One of the byproducts of significantly better relations between Turkey and Syria is a joint effort to saving an endangered species - the Bald Ibis.

The Bald Ibis is one of rarest birds in the world. Large creatures of prey, Bald Ibis are found in Turkey, in Morocco, and a handful are to be found in Syria.

There are about 500 Bald Ibis alive in the wild today and 1,000 in captivity. That's a lot considering that they were considered to be extinct 300 years ago.

The bird's wingspan is 5 feet long, the body is nearly 3 feet long. Well named, the Bald Ibis has a seriously bald head and a 5 inch beak.

The new friendship sprouting between Turkey and Syrian is bad news for the West. But bad news for the West is good news for the Bald Ibis.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Wednesday August 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A serious religious conflict is taking between Palestinian political groups. The conflict is taking place now, right this very minute.

The Palestinian Authority has made it illegal for anyone not authorized by the Authority to preach or instruct in mosques in the West Bank. Why this? Why now? It is the PA's aka Fatah's response to Hamas.

Hamas has been recruiting in the West Bank. Hamas has forbidden the reading of the Quran (Koran) from the minaret before the call to prayer. The PA says this diminishes the teachings of the Quran.

What the PA is really saying is: this is a check against Hamas. Even though the PA and the residents of the West Bank are overwhelmingly Muslim, the PA is fearful of a religious government, like Hamas, taking over.

Hamas says that turning non-PA authorized clergy into criminals is an act of outright war on Islam. Hamas is correct, but they are like the proverbial pot calling the kettle black. Hamas does the same thing. Only authorized Hamas preachers may preach in Gaza - and no political or religious alternative views are ever, at all, permitted.

This is all taking place during Ramadan, the holy month during which peaceful coexistence between fellow Muslims is, or is supposed to be, a prime theme.

Unlike Ramadan, this tension will not be resolved at month's end.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Tuesday August 17, 2010

I'm Predicting:

Iran is very possessive when it comes to friends. Iranians have been known to poach other peoples' allies and they aggressively act to protect and preserve their own friendships.

Iran is very unhappy with the friendship that has emerging over the last few months between Syria and Saudi Arabia.

Iran has been cultivating and investing in Syria for years and assumed that the Syrians were a reliable ally. Saudi Arabia on the other hand is a sworn enemy of Iran. And while Syria and Saudi Arabia had never been close, over the past few months they have transformed their relationship in an effort to achieve mutually important goals.

The most common and important goal to bring Syria and Saudi Arabia together is Lebanon.

Iran wants to control what happens in Lebanon. And it looks like Saudi Arabia is muscling in not only on Syria but also on Lebanon. I see serious regional tensions on the horizon.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Monday August 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Quartet is pressuring Israel to agree to conditions before commencing direct meetings with the Palestinians.

The Quartet, composed of the UN, the EU, Russia and the US, is charged with trying to move the Palestinians and the Israelis toward a peace deal.

Israel had thought that they successfully cornered the Palestinians by pushing for a resumption of face to face, direct talks. The Palestinians had set up a series of pre-conditions before they would come back to the table with the Israelis. The Israelis said pre conditions are unreasonable. The US and most of the world agreed. Until now.

Now the Palestinians have the Quartet as their most welcome mouthpiece, pushing Palestinian preconditions and trying to force Israel into talks.

Israel is saying no and trying to convince the US to back them once again.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Sunday August 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A new audio message was posted on an al Qaeda web site today. It was a message from Ayman Zawahiri, the second most important leader of Al Qaeda. The message, in Arabic, was 20 minutes long.

Most significantly, Zawahiri calls Muslim leaders to task for abandoning the cause of their people.

He also discusses Turkey, delivering a complex and serious message. Al Qaeda's # 2 both calls for ousting Turkey's leadership and compliments the Muslim leadership for supporting the Palestinians and for sending the flotilla to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

He delivers a biting critique of Turkish military cooperation with Israel. On the one hand Zawahiri says Turkey is doing the right thing and on the other he says Turkey is just like all the evil leaders in the Muslim world who co-operate with the enemy.

Zawahiri is not speaking in circles. This critique shows a multi-leveled understanding that until now has been missing in al Qaeda's public messages. Until now, al Qaeda messages have always been mono-dimensional.

This could signal a significant change in al Qaeda's approach to their disciples. Or it could just be a reflection of an obvious reality that needed to be articulated.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Saturday August 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Last night President Barack Obama spoke at a break fast dinner. The dinner marked the end of a day of the month long fast of Ramadan. During Ramadan, Muslims fast by day and eat at night.

Obama spoke about religious freedom and tolerance. I saw a synopsis of the president's remarks and, mark my words, what was said will be heard and interpreted very differently from the intent with which the president chose and spoke his words.

The Muslim community will not be offended by the president. They will draw their own conclusions from the double message that the president, I assume inadvertently, delivered to the break fast guests.

The Muslim community will hear that religious intolerance is unacceptable. That religious intolerance is at the heart of the debate shrouding the World Trade Center mosque. They will understand that the President of the United States is in favor of the mosque.

Other audiences will hear the president deliver a subtle moral lesson, advising the Muslim community that they, too, must practice tolerance.

Bottom line: The president’s message will be totally lost. His attempt at subtle persuasion will be lost on the Muslim community. And those who do not want the Mosque to be built will not be moved by the call for tolerance.

What a wasted opportunity.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Friday August 13, 2010

Column:

The burning question in European democracies today is this: Is it appropriate for a European democracy to prohibit the wearing of the burqa, the Islamic headdress worn by women that covers almost their entire face (most leave slits for the eyes, some cover the eyes with a mesh veil). Debates over the wearing, or non-wearing, of the burqa are spreading like wild fire throughout the continent.

More important than the passion these debates generate is the context in which they are being held. The first country to pass a law forbidding the burqa was Belgium. France recently passed its own law. In England last week a poll was conducted asking 2,000 people what they thought about passing a similar law; 67 percent of those polled were in favor. Now the Spanish Parliament has taken up the debate.

Surprising as it may seem, the reason for banning the burqa is not religious. This is not a case of religious discrimination. It is, on the contrary, a call for freedom. The mandate to cover a woman's face in public flies in the face of the women's movement. It takes away a woman's freedom and equality. It is also a call based on issues of safety and security. It is impossible to identify someone whose face is covered - it is a security risk.

Democracies do not come without limits. Regardless of one's belief, one person does not have the freedom to subjugate another. That is the thesis behind the enactment of laws forbidding the burqa in European countries.

Theocracies and non-Western democracies have even more limits. And yet, there are also Muslim countries that have outlawed the burqa. Turkey and Egypt are two examples. Both back up their ban with cogent historical and religious evidence that the burqa is a pagan influence on Islam. More than that, they warn that it is the Taliban who brought the burqa back into popular Islamic culture and for that reason alone the wearing of the burqa should be rejected by mainstream Islam.

These arguments are right, and they are wrong.

The term burqa means to patch or sew. It is used to refer to the headdress worn by women, but it is an improper, inaccurate use of the word. Niqab is the best term for what we call the burqa. In Arabic, niqab translates to mask.

Another word used in Islamic culture that denotes a head covering is hijab, which means curtain. Hijab also refers to the Islamic concept of modesty and privacy, giving it a far deeper theological meaning than burqa. It refers to the separation between the world of man and the heavenly world.

The Koran makes reference to the headscarf using the term khimar, which today, is translated as a body cover.

There is a long history of body covering and head covering in Islam. Most of those traditions are a response to and a rejection of pagan tribes and tradition in Arabia.

A rose is a rose is a rose. A burqa is a niqab, is a hijab. And the head covering is being outlawed in more and more European countries. There is sure to be a backlash. The first people to suffer the results of this backlash will not be the European parliamentarians and countries, nor Islamic leaders.

It is the women who will suffer. Women stuck between their need to fulfill their religious doctrine and living in a modern European state. Figuratively, maybe even literally, it is the women who will be the ones to burn.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Thursday August 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Howard L. Berman (D-CA) is the Chair of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. On August 2, Berman put a hold on $100 million of US aid to Lebanon for 2010, another $100 million was held for 2011.

August 2 was the day before the cross border sniper killing of an Israeli officer.

In the official Committee statement released on August 9 Berman said:
"I have been concerned for sometime about reported Hezbollah influence on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and its implications for our military assistance program for Lebanon. For that reason, on August 2, I placed a hold on a $100 million dollar security assistance package to the LAF. The incident on the Israel-Lebanon border only one day after my hold was placed simply reinforces the critical need for the United States to conduct an in-depth policy review of its relationship with the Lebanese military. I strongly condemn the unprovoked attacked by the Lebanese Army that resulted in the death of an Israeli officer. Until we know more about this incident and the nature of Hezbollah influence on the LAF -- and can assure that the LAF is a responsible actor -- I cannot in good conscience allow the United States to continue sending weapons to Lebanon."

The Congressman is 100% correct.

It was not luck or karma that influenced Berman to shut the money down on that day. It was scrutiny. The Chairman and the Committee are correct to have suspicions because Hezbollah is so fully integrated into the Lebanese Army.

Within hours of the announcement the Iranian Ambassador met with the Lebanese Minister of Defense and promised Lebanon whatever they need. That's right, all of Lebanon's needs will be catered to on a silver platter by Iran.

The United States disciplines Lebanon and the Iranians reward them for the very same act. The Middle East is a very complicated region.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

August 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the first day of Ramadan.

Ramadan is the name of the ninth month of the Muslim calendar. It is also a month long fast. Muslims fast during the day and eat at night. When they fast it is a total fast, that means no food and no drink.

Ramadan, the Islamic fast, mimics the biblical holy day of Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. The biblical holiday, the fast of Yom Kippur, is but one day long. The fast of Ramadan is designed as a month of introspection and repentance. Evening break fasts are a celebration of life and family.

During Ramadan the mosques are packed and the Imams are preaching. The people are hungry and introspective. Ramadan is the perfect breeding ground for extremist ideas and actions.

For the West, Ramadan is a time of high alert.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Tuesday August 10, 2010

I'm Predicting:

For the past few months Palestinian President Abbas has been complaining of the international pressure on him to resume direct talks with Israel.

Abbas has been saying over and over that Arab, Muslim and Western countries have put enormous pressure on the Palestinians. Almost every world leader has been pressuring him to drop his preconditions and just begin the talks. And Abbas has not hidden the fact that, of all the world's leaders on his back, the Obama administration has been especially aggressive.

Abbas thought he had Israel over the barrel - but he over played his hand, once again.

When the Vice President of the United States was embarrassed during his visit to Israel, Abbas took advantage of the situation and orchestrated a scenario that brought the public tension to its peak. He created a list of pre-conditions. He convinced the Palestinian people that the preconditions were important. And the masses believed him.

According to a poll taken in the Palestinian Authority, beginning direct talks would be a very unpopular decision - a decision from which Abbas may not be able to recover. But I think he has come up with a survival plan. Abbas will hold out, avoiding direct talks as long as he can, and then - he will blame his capitulation on Obama.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Monday August 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Iran announced that they were launching four new Ghadir series submarines. The Ghadir are a midget series submarine and Iran has 11 of them.

At about only 30 yards long, the Ghadir may be small, but they are stealth equipped and very high tech. They will help Iran patrol their borders. They are capable of firing both torpedoes and missiles at the same time.

The Ghadir are very dangerous, difficult to monitor and a very effective attack weapon.

Iran continues to crank up their conventional weapons capabilities. That means we must keep a very, very close eye on what the Iranians do and don't do. We need to know exactly what the Iranians are capable of accomplishing.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Sunday August 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad came out with his own information about 9-11 on Saturday. His goal is to position himself as the only leader capable of successfully challenging the established West.

On Saturday Ahmadinejad announced that:
9-11 was a fiction
the numbers were invented
he never saw a list of names of victims.

Ahmadinejad said that the Zionists were told not to come to work that day. He added that the Holocaust was also a fiction, a fictional tool used by the Zionists to gain sympathy.

Why is he saying all of this and why is he saying it now?
Ahmadinejad is making a play to isolate the West and concentrate power and strength in a non-Western block.

The most dramatic conspiracies to circulate throughout the non-Western world center around 9-11 and about the Holocaust . If Ahmadinejad can add fuel to the proverbial fire on these issues, he becomes the most public personality and influential international leader able to support a bid against the West.

In general, political leaders shy away from publicly speaking out on theories fearing that the US will slap them down. Instead these writings and ideas find themselves in mosques and in non-establishment publications and on websites.

Ahmadinejad is making these ideas mainstream. He is giving voice to a gargantuan mass that believe this rhetoric.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Saturday August 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Egyptian police, secret service and army are conducting a massive man hunt in the Sinai desert. They are looking for terrorists and trucks used to launch a barrage of rockets that landed in Aqaba, Jordan and in Eilat, Israel.

The rockets were launched on Monday. One Jordanian was killed and three were wounded. The incoming explosives left no dead or injured in Israel. Now the United States has updates the State Department's travel warning recommendations and is advising Americans to stay away from Eilat.

Immediately after the rockets came flying Egypt declared that there was no possible way that they came from their territory. They claimed that US anti-terror and police teams swarm the area making it impossible for an attack to be launched. They were convinced only after Jordan delivered incontrovertible proof and evidence that the rockets were, indeed, launched from Egypt.

Now Egypt is in high gear and they have announced that the terrorists came from Gaza. Of course, these terrorists have not been sunbathing in Sinai for the past few days waiting to be caught.

This delay by Egypt was a classic element of Mid-East machismo. This time that machismo got in the way of apprehending terrorists and gathering intel on their operations.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Friday August 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Most people do not know this, but in Afghanistan and Tajikistan one of the languages that is spoken is Persian - just like in Iran.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad created a Persian Language Summit with three of his neighboring countries. Ahmadinejad is trying to counter the influence of the West. He wants to oust the West. He is trying to organize and leverage and force NATO out of Afghanistan by organizing the leaders. In the final analysis, Ahmadinejad wants to further isolate the United States.

Iran needs to prove to Afghanistan and Tajikistan and everyone else in the area that their own region does not want the West to be there. He wants to prove that there is nothing more upsetting to people in the region than the presence of outsider armies, especially Western armies amidst them.

This is Ahmadinejad at his best.
This is Ahmadinejad organizing the region against the West.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Thursday August 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Why did Lebanese soldiers open fire on Israeli forces? Why did the Lebanese snipers target Israeli officers 220 yards from the border operation that was trimming shrubs?

The evidence is clear. The truth is evident. Even UNIFIL and the US State Department say that the IDF was within Israel's border while trimming the shrubs with a cherry picker.

The UN has also confirmed that Israel informed them and they alerted the Lebanese Army that Israel would be trimming the shrubs. And Israel was trimming shrubs in order to prevent further cross border kidnappings.

One theory is that the Lebanese need to distract their citizens from the soon to be released UN report on the assassination of Lebanese President Rafik Hariri.

Another possibility is that Hezbollah infiltrated the Lebanese army and planned the assassination of the senior Israeli officers who would certainly be supervising the trimming operation. Hezbollah is thought to be heavily inside the Lebanese army - to the tune of 30%.

Whatever the reason, the only thing that surprises me is that UNIFIL actually told the truth and that UNIFIL finally backed up Israel and UNIFIL supported Israel's side of the story.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Wednesday August 4, 2010

Column:

Much of foreign affairs is about re-inventing the wheel. The same can be said about much of politics, in general. One has to ask why people appointed and elected to important office feel the need to re-try what others have tried before them - and expect a different, improved, outcome.

In foreign affairs creativity and outside-the-box thinking just don't cut it. That's unfortunate.

The approach of the current White House towards Iran is the perfect example of re-inventing the wheel. This White House was certain that if Iran was approached with a proper attitude and by anyone other than George Bush, the Iranians would whole heartedly change their point of view and adopt the US stand on how to develop their nuclear technology.

George Bush has been seen by the current president the American electorate as the resounding cause for the Iranian rejection of the United States' world view. It was assumed - however presumptively, egotistically and, alas, erroneously, that the new president, i.e. Barack Obama would be able to bring Iran around to the American point of view.

That did not happen.

Now, after the fact, the present administration will argue that they were always skeptical of Iran. But public proclamations and overt actions prove otherwise. In truth, the Obama administration simply started from the beginning and did much of what the Bush Administration had done. And the result is that the Obama administration has brought the US/Iran relationship right back to where it was ... just 20 months later.

The mistake that both administrations have been making is in thinking that the problem lies between our current administration (whoever that may be) and current Iranian leadership. No one has bothered to take a historical look at Iran. No one has thought to study or analyze Iranians and their history of reactions to change. Had anyone spent the time they would have concluded that there is no way that Iran could have been convinced that the Obama administration is any different than the Bush Administration.

Iranians have not changed and will not change because the Iranians do not change. Is that outside-the-box thinking, well then excuse me, please.

The metaphor of "reinventing the wheel" is so powerful and so appropriate for this analysis. The wheel is the archetype of human ingenuity. It is one of the earliest of all inventions and is the foundation point of nearly all subsequent inventions. The wheel has enabled man to take giant strides forward. Re-inventing the wheel, is, literally and figuratively a step backwards.

The problem is not unique to the arrogance of the United States vis a vis Iran. Turkey, too, has fallen into the diplomatic trap of assuming they can re-invent the Iranian wheel.

Turkey and Brazil sponsored a deal with Iran to export Iranian uranium to Turkey and, in return, Turkey receives 19.6% enriched uranium. According to the way the Turkish government thinks, this deal will push everyone back from the brink of war. In exchange for the deal Turkey and Brazil, who both sit on the United Nations Security Council, promised to vote with Iran against the new 4th set of international sanctions against them.

From the point of view of the Turks this was a perfect win, a spectacular negotiating feat. They are now positioned as major players in the world and their philosophy that the West cannot conceptually deal with Iran has been legitimized.

But - and it's a big but, when Turkey recently asked Iran to commence their detailed discussion of the agreement as was promised Iran said "not now maybe at the end of the summer." Now Turkey is livid. They sided with Iran and went to bat for Iran and now Iran has not changed their stance at all despite all the promises and the agreements.

Turkey should have known better. The United States should know better. Iran develops strategies that help Iran. Iran does not change.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Tuesday August 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Can prison authorities prohibit the wearing of a Muslim head scarf? A United States court has just come out with a ruling.

The argument is pretty straightforward.

Under normal circumstances, this would b a freedom of religion issue and there should be no question but that this is an open and shut issue. But these are not normal circumstances, this is a question of security.

Prison needs to maintain safety. The head scarf is a perfect place to conceal weapons. The head scarf can be used as a weapon to strangle someone. So the court sided against freedom of religion and came out in favor of security and safety.

One of the most important lessons to be learned here is that even constitutional rights, assumed to be inalienable, have their limitations when it comes to safety.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

Monday August 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Ambassador to the United Nation's, Muhammed Khazaee, just went on home leave. In Teheran he received face-to-face updates from his superiors.

The UN Ambassador is a very important position in Iran. The Ambassador defends and presents Iran to the world. It is the UN Ambassador who officially attacks the US and Israel and who circles the wagons for whatever cause or issue is on the Iranian agenda at any given moment.

Khazaee is portrayed as a very important person by the Iranian media, he is a hero who defends the honor of Iran against oppressors.

While on home leave Khazaee did a round of local interviews. To the Iranian press he proclaimed: "Tehran would burn Tel Aviv down" if Iran was attacked.

Much of this is bluster - but there is a real threat hidden inside those words.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah