Sunday November 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

There are serious murmurings about a 90 day Israeli building moratorium. So serious, that the story has been reported by most of news organizations.

It looks like a deal is being hammered out between Israel and the United States.

Israel will cease building for 90 days and the United States:
will veto all anti-Israel proposals in the UN
will deliver Israel 20 of the most sophisticated F-35 fighter jets valued at $3 billion
will not ask for another settlement stop

It is a good deal for Israel.
It is a terrible deal for the United States.
It is a horrific deal for the Palestinian Authority.

The PA will never be able to agree to anything - no less a peace treaty in the 90 days: they failed during the 10 month moratorium that ended in September
they have not even set the stage with their people acclimating them to the idea that a treaty with Israel is possible
they have no real sense of comprise on any issue.
their stance is all or nothing - or we go straight to the Security Council

The United States, which is supporting both the PA and Israel will lose all leverage with both sides after the 90 days. The PA wants a perpetual stoppage of all building with no exceptions. The US can only get a short term solution to that. There is no possible way to bring the sides together and in agreement in such a short time.

The entire suggestion is ludicrous and dangerous. Once again, the United States is displaying extreme myopia in predicting, anticipating, and understanding what might happen next. This kind of a deal is almost 100% sure to fail. The United States has not thought this through.

It is a win - win for Israel.
Israel gets everything and gives only a 3 month moratorium.

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