Saturday January 1, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had some insightful and forceful things to say yesterday.

He said that the United States is more interested in managing the Palestinian/Israeli conflict than in resolving it. In that, Abbas may be correct.

He called for an international response, explaining that he wants to establish an international committee to manage the establishment of a Palestinian State.

At the same time that the president of the PA was making these statements, PA security forces arrested Kawasma in Hebron. Kawasma is the most dangerous and most significant of all Hamas terrorists. In addition to being on the PA's list, Kawasma is also on Israel's terrorists list. Now everyone is happy.

In arresting a leading Hamas strongman, Abbas and the Palestinian Authority have finally assumed the roles that the international community was expecting them to assume.

This single and very important act may pave the way for more international support of the PA and may just accomplish the sought after end around of US involvement in the conflict.

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Friday December 31, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

In Iraq yesterday the homes of four Christian families were bombed. Two people were killed in the terror attacks.

This terror is part of larger Muslim/ Christian tensions in the Middle East.

The attacks were timed to coincide with Christmas and the Christmas season. Clearly, this is the work of Muslim extremists who refuse to accept alternative religious expressions.

These are the big questions: Why has Christian leadership been silent on this issue? Why hasn't Christian leadership been up in arms about this direct attack against Christians and Christian tradition?

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Thursday December 30, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the US energy company Nobel Energy jointly announced that they have discovered a reserve of 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The find is valued at $95 billion. This reserve is located 100 miles off the coast of Haifa.

This discovery is the largest natural gas find in of the last decade. This discovery will turn Israel into one of the world's great exporters of gas in the next few years. This reserve lies about 30 miles away from another recent find called Tamar, valued at $15 billion.

The name given to the newly discovered site is Leviathan... also known as the enormous beast.

These discoveries are true game changers - for the region and for the world.

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Wednesday December 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Once upon a time Mohammed Dahlan was considered the fair haired boy of Fatah - seen as a potential successor to Arafat and Abbas.

Today Dahlan spends most of his time abroad and is being investigated by Abbas and Fatah for financial irregularities and incitement against Abbas. He has called for Abbas' replacement and has said some impolite things about Abbas' son.

At one point Dahlan was expected by Washington be the next Palestinian leader. He was one of President Bill Clinton's absolute favorites among the Arafat team and a regular guest in the West Wing.

Dahlan was the man Washington DC thought could bring order and move the Palestinians to the next stages towards peace and statehood. He was the strong arm of Fatah especially in Gaza and was expected to be the Palestinian connection to the West.

All hopes for Dahlan were dashed in the summer of 2007 when Hamas expelled Fatah from Gaza and he was nowhere to be found. Since then, Dahlan has been a non-entity.

Now the fair haired boy of Fatah is under investigation by Fatah.

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Tuesday December 28, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Gamal Mubarak, the Policy Chief of Egypt's ruling party, also the son of current president Hosni Mubarak, made an announcement yesterday.

Presidential elections will take place in September of 2011. And in July, the party will decide who their nominee will be.

President Hosni Mubarak is 83 years old, has been elected 5 times and has been in power since 1981. He has not said that he will step down, but the widely held assumption is that Gamal will succeed him.

The next few months will be critical in determining if Gamal is prepared. There are serious questions about his skill, his public presence and whether he has the ruthlessness to control Egypt.

Gamal has no military background and will be spending much time cultivating the Egyptian army and air force - without them, there is no possibility of maintaining order and power in Egypt.

Over the next few months we need to watch the different roles Gamal plays and the responses to those roles. He may be the chosen candidate or maybe - Hosni will forge on for another term as president.

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Monday December 27, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On Christmas day there was a slew of terrorist attacks against Christians by Muslim terrorists. The Pope, in his Sunday mass from St. Peter's Square in the Vatican, condemned the attacks.

These attacks should have come as no surprise - they were to be expected.

In Nigeria, two churches were bombed resulting in at least 32 deaths and critically wounding 70. A Church in the Philippines was also attacked.

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. Of the180 million people living in Nigeria, there is an almost even split between Muslims and Christians. The average wage in Nigeria is about $1200 per year.

Muslim / Christian relations throughout Africa are stressed and they will continue to be stressed. Al Qaeda is gaining more and more sympathizers. What most annoys these newly recruited Muslim terrorists is the public displays of the other religions within their borders and the fact that religions other then Islam are given recognition as equal or even viable alternatives to Islam.

And that is why terrorists target Christian churches on and around Christian holidays.

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Sunday December 26, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The British Telegraph reported that the new Israeli Chief of Mossad was going to apologize to England for using stolen passports earlier this year during the famous assassination in Dubai of Hamas master terrorist Mabouh.

As a part of the apology comes a promise that the Mossad will not use forged or stolen British passports again in the future.

This kind of apology is tantamount to a public admission of guilt.

The objective here is to get Israel and England back on the same path, to get them once again working together on intelligence to make a safer world.

The new Israeli Chief of Mossad thinks that this goal is worth the cost of admitting responsibility for the infamous deed.

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Saturday December 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan has established an official committee of inquiry into a private school.

What did this private school do? Their curriculum includes an English textbook and in the English textbook there is a chapter about the Holocaust that includes several quotations from The Diary of Anne Frank.

How obtuse.

The committee is looking into other schools, checking to see if they, too, may be violating Jordanian law by teaching Anne Frank. According to Jordanian law all curriculum must be approved - and Anne Frank is not approved.

Here is the problem.

We know that Jordan is not a democracy. We assumed that it was an enlightened dictatorship. We assumed that the monarchy was liberalizing ideas and education while still holding a firm grasp on government and leadership.

We were wrong.

I personally have purchased several editions of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion in Jordan.

Forbidding the study of Holocaust and banning Anne Frank is just a mistake. It is self destructive for a government to try to silence the voice of a little child. Read her diary and you will understand.

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Friday December 24, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency), the official Iranian news agency, reported yesterday that the acting head of the Iranian Navy attended a conference in Sri Lanka.

What makes this interesting to us is that also present at that conference were commanders of the United States Navy, the Russian Navy, the French Navy and the British Navy. 22 nations sent representatives to the conference which took place last month.

The conference was convened to discuss piracy. The objective was to try to create a united task force and a united strike force to directly confront piracy.

There is no doubt that piracy has gotten out of control. Without serious international effort and significant cooperation, there is almost no way to adequately put the genie back in the bottle. It is in the best interest of all those nations who participated in the conference to organize and then strike out against the pirates.

Iran is a significant player on the high seas. Iran needs to make certain that the seas are free of pirates. Iran was wise to attend this conference. So why did it take a month to announce that they attended ... that's the way it works in Iran.

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Thursday December 23, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad travelled just over his border today. He ventured into Turkey where several sets of critical meetings are scheduled to take place.

Turkey is a member of the Security Council. The Turkish government has been siding with Iran against the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Nuclear issues will certainly be on the Iranian/Turkish agenda. Turkey actually suggested that they host the upcoming nuclear talks and Iran readily agreed, but the European Union will not allow Iran to have such a home court advantage.

A meeting of Central Asian states, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, will also be taking place with Iranian participation. Iran wants to be taken seriously in that group. Ahmadinejad would like to sway these countries, also, to join him in changing world orientation away from the United States.

Ahmadinejad is a man with a mission.

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Wednesday December 22, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

You know the expression: a pot calling the kettle black. Here is a perfect example.

In an interview with the Times of London, Wikileaks founder and figurehead Julian Assange was angered because the trial documents of his Swedish sex abuse trial have been leaked to the British newspaper The Guardian. The newspaper now has the task of deciphering the reams of cables and letters and comments and documents.

There is more than a hint of irony in this entire incident because the Guardian is one of the several news outlets handpicked by Assange to present his own massive leaks. Assange expressed his horror that the details are going unchecked into the mass media.

You know the cliche: what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Grow up Julian, grow up.

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Tuesday December 21, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The president of Brazil has announced that there will never be peace in the Middle East as long as the United States is guardian.

Luiz Lula da Silva proclaimed that an end to US control of the Middle East would usher in an era of peace. He said: "There will not be peace in the Middle East as long as the United States is the guardian of peace. It is necessary to involve other countries in negotiations."

He then added that the unfair conditions other countries must withstand because of the United States is unjust - particularly Iran and the sanctions that they confront.

Remember, Brazil, along with Turkey, voted not to impose sanctions against Iran in the most recent UN Security Council Meetings.

Brazil has bought into the world view that the United States should not be determining priorities and adjudicating who is right and who is wrong.

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Monday December 20, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is up in arms over the agreement that was signed last Friday between Cyprus and Israel.

It was an agreement about maritime borders. It was an agreement about oil and gas drilling rights. It was an agreement about who owns what and where.

Turkey is livid because they do not accept Cyprus' authority to make such an agreement. Turkey disputes the very right of the Cypriot government to exist. Turkey controls half of Cyprus.

Cyprus is just the catalyst. This is another in a series of events that pits Turkey against Israel.

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Sunday December 19, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

On the cultural front it is always interesting to watch who comes to Israel and who cancels their trips to Israel. But let's talk about who comes.

This past week Denzel Washington, Pauletta, his wife of thirty years and his family, flew into Israel on a private jet.

As a family they visited Haifa and were hosted by Denzel's long time friend from acting school in New York City, Dr. David Davis. Davis is the head of Messianic Jews in Haifa.

The Washington family also visited Jerusalem, stayed in a prominent Jerusalem hotel (the Citadel of David Hotel) and visited the Old City and the Western Wall. According to rumor, which often turns out to be true, Denzel and Pauletta bought his and hers wedding rings spun from red gold and a few cigars, one of Denzel's passions.

In 2011, according to an announcement he made on Larry King, Bon Jovi and his legendary band will be performing in Israel.

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Saturday December 18, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

France just announced that they will be supplying Lebanon with 100 missiles by the end of February.

Why on earth would France do such a thing?

Both the United States and Israel strongly oppose this transfer of missiles to Lebanon.
But the French are doing it anyway.

The French believe that, given the tensions in Lebanon right now, the best way to stabilize the country is to bolster the standing government against Hezbollah. Hezbollah might very well attempt to take over Lebanon if the United Nations indicts their commanders for assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minster Rafik Hariri.

The obvious problem is that Hezbollah is stronger than the government's army.
That means that these 100 missiles will probably end up in the hands of Hezbollah.
And that is very dangerous.

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Friday December 17, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The British Daily Telegraph website came out with a blockbuster last night.

According to their French diplomat source Iran and the West are about to close a deal - brokered by the Turks.

The deal would involve lifting sanctions against Iran and taking them out of the international doghouse. In exchange the Iranians would deliver 1000 kilo of low enriched uranium and all 30 kilo of their 20% enriched uranium to the West.

In other words, if this really is the deal, almost all the uranium that the Iranians have - certainly all the highly enriched uranium they possess, would be given over to Western nations.

It all, of course, comes with a price tag higher than the mere lifting of sanctions. The West would then supply Iran with already enriched uranium rods (even at 20%) to be used for medical research.

Sounds good, maybe too good.

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Thursday December 16, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi officials have announced that they have very specific information about plans to attack the West during this Christmas season.

The Iraqis assert that the botched Stockholm terror attack over the weekend was part of a program that targets Western cities.

The information comes to us via captured Al Qaeda terrorists. During their interrogation by Iraq, the terrorists admitted that Al Qaeda was plotting a set of massive attacks to strike at the heart of the West.

One can always assume that Al Qaeda is plotting against the West. From this intelligence it seems that Al Qaeda is close to turning their plot into real action.

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Wednesday December 15, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

They are feeling frustrated on the streets of Iran.

Iranians are responding negatively to the news that, on Monday, Ahmadinejad fired Foreign Minister Mottaki. There was no warning and no concern about backlash. And now - there is serious backlash.

The big question is: why. Mottaki was in Senegal at the time and received the news in the form of a letter from Ahmadinejad. He is embarrassed, even humiliated.

Politics in Iran have always been a powder keg. A decision of this kind and the response that it has elicited from Iranian society shows the enormous rift, the significant stress and the distrust among even supporters of the government.

Mottaki's job was to defend Iran. For all we in the West know, Mottaki was quiet at a time when Ahmadinejad wanted him to be on the attack.

Whatever the reason, we have to watch closely. We need to see where the chips will land.

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Tuesday December 14, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday the EU laid out important parameters defining their Middle East policy.

The EU made it clear that they were not going to recognize a Palestinian State. Now is not the time for such a declaration, they declared.

The EU also made clear their disappointment that Israel did not continue the moratorium on settlement, expressing "regret" over Israel's decision not to accept the US POV.

Then the EU promised to give significant aid to Hamas leadership and Gaza.

The European Union has undertaken the role of a very important intermediary between Israel and the Hamas. The European Union continues to pressure Israel to stop building.

In analyzing the entire EU POV from beginning to end it all the adds up to one thing. The EU is creating a soft cushion for the Palestinians.

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Monday December 13, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Shaul Mofaz, chairman of the Israeli Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, came out with a clear and unequivocal assessment of Hamas on Sunday.

Mofaz said that if Hamas uses its longer range rockets to attack Israel, Israel will respond by destabilizing and unseating Hamas.

The point is obvious: it is one thing to shoot a few rockets at kibbutzim and small towns near the Gaza border, but if you plan on attacking a major Israelis city with a significant population - you can expect real retribution.

The implication is clear: if Hamas attacks, the Israeli counter attack will not be proportional.

Mofaz is saying that if pushed too hard, Israel will take out Hamas - all of Hamas, from infrastructure through leadership.

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Sunday December 12, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) conducted a very short meeting yesterday in Vienna.

The oligopoly of 12 nations voted quickly to keep the current oil output numbers.

OPEC members are pleased with the current price of oil at just below $90 per barrel. OPEC members realize that given the uncertainty of today's economy, a change in oil production could wreak havoc on the world's economy.

OPEC members were gladdened to hear that it is anticipated that the price of oil will slowly increase over the next year.

OPEC is doing only what is good for OPEC. The organization does not want to put any additional strain on the current sensitive and volatile market - that would potential cause damage to the larger world economy.

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Saturday December 11, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

A rocket launched from Gaza landed in an open area in Ashkelon yesterday.

An increasing number of rockets have been shot from Gaza these past few weeks. To put it into perspective, fewer rockets are being showered upon Israel now than there were two years ago - resulting Operation Cast Lead, Israel's invasion into Gaza. And what is that diminished number - so far this year, about 205.

Again, putting it in perspective, 205 falling rockets is a lot of rockets.

Israel is responding with air attacks. On Thursday the Israeli air force struck three sites in Gaza.

There is a significant difference between the Israeli and Gazan style of attack. Israel went out on targeted missions with the specific goal of hitting two terrorist training camps and a lone terrorist planning attacks against Israel. Rockets launched by the Palestinians are shots in the dark. The Palestinian objective is to cause as much fear as possible.

Rockets are part of a Palestinian terror plan to generate raw fear in the heart of all Israelis.

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Friday December 10, 2010

I'm Predicting:

Since "the flotilla" in May, relations between Turkey and Israel have been frigid. And then last week, during the worst natural disaster in Israel's history, Turkey sent teams to assist.

In the interim back channel diplomatic and military relations continued between the two countries. When push comes to shove - diplomacy needs to progress. Right now - that is what is happening.

Turkey is demanding an apology over "the flotilla" and Israel wants to give Turkey its regrets. Turkey wants Israel to bend and beg. Israel wants to remain upright.

Apology or regrets, which shall it be?

A Solomonic response is in order. The tension will probably be resolved through the use of language - different languages . Each country will say what they want and both countries will hear what they want.

That's another form of diplomacy.

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Thursday December 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The US now understands that the demand to stop settlements in Israel was a mistake. The State Department is saying that they now see that ending settlement activity became a cause in and of itself and not a tool to solve core issues.

For the Obama Administration, it was a major realization, a diplomatic wow moment. The Palestinians feel betrayed. Israel feels vindicated.

The United States committed one of the greatest analytical and practical errors of diplomacy.
They championed the plight of the weak party only because they were weak.

They took the side of the Palestinians because it seemed that the Palestinians needed their help.
They sabotaged their own diplomatic agenda.
They blinded themselves to the facts on the ground.
And then, they were blindsided by the Palestinians.

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Wednesday December 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The Mossad has reported to the Knesset Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense that Lebanon is in danger of being taken over by Hezbollah.

According to the Mossad, Hezbollah may take over Lebanon as a direct result of the UN report about the murder of former Lebanese President Harari.

This UN report has the potential to force Hezbollah to take over and oust current Lebanese leadership. Hezbollah is already in position to control Lebanon.

The bad news is that if that happens, the Middle East landscape would be drastically altered, it would lead to the creation of yet another Shiite-controlled country.

The Mossad reported that Hezbollah continues to arm itself.

The Mossad reported that if Hezbollah does take over Lebanon there is only a slight chance that Israel would be impacted by the change.

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Tuesday December 7, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has had a shark attack.

They are blaming the Mossad.

The rumors spread quickly. Throughout Egypt, people are saying that Israel is deliberately sabotaging the Egyptian tourist industry by dumping killer sharks into the water to attack tourists.

People will say things, rumors will run wild and conspiracy theories will abound. We know that. What is most disturbing is when official leadership stimulates those rumors.

According to Egypt's South Sinai Governor Mohamed Abdel Fadil Shousha on egynews.net: "What is being said about the Mossad throwing the deadly shark (in the sea) to hit tourism in Egypt is not out of the question, but it needs time to confirm."

Time to be confirmed? Really, now.

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Monday December 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has claimed a huge victory on the eve of the direct negotiations between their country and the 5 permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany, which is taking place in Geneva

Iran claims that they have started to enrich locally mined uranium ore.

Up until now all the uranium in Iran has come from yellow cake imported 40 years ago, in 1970, from South Africa. Most experts say that this is a dubious success / victory at best.

Experts assert that there are not enough reserves of uranium in Iran to enable them to gather uranium in quantities sufficient to make the seriously enriched uranium used for high grade nuclear requirements.

The announcement and the negotiations are all about pressure and public impressions. Iran is playing a game of public perception, it is game the Iranians play well.

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Sunday December 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is confronting a horrific situation - and it's not just the great fire.

Making the situation worse are the numerous other fires engulfing the area - fires caused by terrorist arsonists.

Terrorists have attempted to light additional fires. They are happily attempting to pile on this Israeli tragedy.

This is the nature of the terrorist mind. Terrorists want to destroy. In this case the Palestinian terrorists want to destroy Israeli land and property - not just human life.

Palestinians profess a love of land, but these terrorists are destroying land in order to achieve their goal. Such is war.

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Saturday December 4, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The fire in Israel has been devastating. The damage to nature, property, industry and the Israeli people is still growing. Property damage caused by these flames is far worse than damage that has been caused by war.

1,500,000 tress have been burnt.
20,000 dunams (5,000 acres) of land has been destroyed.
15,000 people have been evacuated.
And 41 people have been killed.

Many FOI (friends of Israel) have stepped up with offers of help. Cyprus and Greece and even Turkey sent over materials, equipment and teams.

The hope is that the entire fire will be contained by Saturday night. The reality is that no one anticipated such a catastrophe. There were no emergency measures in place with which to begin to respond to a fire as destructive as this.

This is deeply troubling on many levels.
For years we have known that one of the standard terror plots against Israel was to attempt to set fire to large amounts of land, specifically around Haifa.

Why were there no safety plans in place?
The prime minister must now answer that question.

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Friday December 3, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange agreed to an audio interview for Time Magazine online.

During the interview Assange spoke about Benjamin Netanyahu explaining that the Israeli Prime Minister says that a leader should say the same things in private and in public.

At the same time, the Turkish Prime Minister said that the Israel is responsible for all the leaks. His logic was that the only way Israel can be so happy and so certain about the leaks is if they knew what was in them and controlled the leak.

Of course, Turkey is wrong - and right. Israel did not leak the documents, but Israel does look good in these leaks.

The reality is that Israel was correct in their analysis of Iran. All along Israel has maintained that Iran wanted to go nuclear. These leaked documents help prove Israel's claim.

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Thursday December 2, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

The WikiLeaks are filled with tidbits - tidbits that confirm things we already knew.

For example: Saudi King Abdullah met with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Muttaki in March of 2009.

The Saudi king told the Iranians to butt out of Arab affairs. The message was clear: Do not interfere in Palestinians issues.

There is no love lost between Arabs and Persians (the Iranians). The Iranians are not Arabs and Iran's input is not welcome in their lives or politics ... especially because the Iranians are backing Hamas against the Palestinian Authority.

Sometimes, it's just nice to have confirmation. Sometimes, it's critical.

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